ACUS11 KWNS 142302
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142301
OKZ000-TXZ000-150030-

Mesoscale Discussion 2376
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0601 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of West and Northwest Texas into
southwestern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 685...

Valid 142301Z - 150030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 685
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for primarily damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
brief tornado or two continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 685.

DISCUSSION...Initially more cellular convection that formed along a
north-south oriented Pacific cold front has largely trended toward a
linear storm mode as of 2300 UTC, with two stronger clusters noted
across West Texas. Several wind gusts measured/estimated in the
60-75 mph range have been noted with this activity over the past
couple of hours. Expectation is for these clusters to continue to
progress northeastward, which will gradually result in storms
becoming elevated as they progress into greater low-level stability
noted north of an east-west oriented remnant outflow boundary and
becoming elevated. The primary threat with this activity will
continue to be damaging/severe wind gusts.

Backed surface winds are also noted across northwest Texas/southwest
Oklahoma to the north of the outflow boundary and are contributing
to clockwise-curved low-level hodographs that may support the
potential for a brief tornado or two if storms can remain surface
based. Recent CAM guidance (e.g., HRRR/RRFS runs) continues to
suggest that the outflow boundary will eventually lift northward
tonight, with greater low-level moisture returning to the Red River
Valley vicinity and perhaps as far north as southern/central
Oklahoma. Some increase in the threat for a brief tornado may
manifest should this scenario occur. This remains uncertain,
however, as this boundary has exhibited minimal northward motion
over the past several hours.

..Chalmers.. 10/14/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4aIFmQGajZAwLienCQ4PietCgHQE7fYpHBVRD3ob3kfH34R8rpu0uLMAX3bWQRAscHyaAcPJG-Kwm5yNwCmdjfg3H-w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 32510148 32810152 33280131 33780096 34470013 35039918
35079886 34939853 34629837 34209852 33419915 32410023
32140103 32260131 32510148

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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--- scorpsmtpd
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