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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2372

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 14 01:59:00 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 140158
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 140158
    MOZ000-KSZ000-140400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2372
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0858 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

    Areas affected...portions of southern/eastern Kansas into northern
    Missouri

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 682...

    Valid 140158Z - 140400Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 682
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe risk for primarily damaging/severe wind
    gusts continues across portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 682.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms
    remain ongoing along a progressive surface cold front extending from
    northern Missouri into south-central Kansas as of 0200 UTC. The
    strongest of the ongoing thunderstorms is a convective cluster
    progressing eastward across western Missouri that produced numerous
    reports of damaging/severe wind gusts in the Kansas City metro area
    over the past 1-2 hours. Latest high-resolution CAM guidance
    suggests that this cluster may continue downstream for at least
    another couple of hours, with 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE and 30-40 kts of
    effective bulk shear helping to maintain some potential for
    occasional damaging/severe wind gusts. However, increasing
    convective inhibition and decreasing instability with eastward
    extent suggest that the overall severe risk will decrease with time
    as convection progresses eastward. Thus, a downstream watch is not
    currently anticipated, but trends will continue to be monitored.

    Farther southwest, scattered elevated thunderstorms remain ongoing
    along the cool side of the convectively reinforced surface front.
    While regional radar imagery has sampled occasionally stronger
    velocity signatures within more robust cores (perhaps associated
    with gravity wave processes), the elevated nature of the convection
    and greater low-level stability on the cool side of the boundary
    suggest that the overall severe risk has decreased, with any
    lingering potential for damaging/severe wind gusts and marginally
    severe hail likely to remain relatively isolated.

    ..Chalmers.. 10/14/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6bRNlFV9TNR9weSUGMFnWcCdpjaS_HG6QMVkl6LZe_jQM3qEGSyOSR31sk34dRgNXzhkH686HEzBWM3SZIE_oGIMSe8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...TOP...ICT...

    LAT...LON 37569748 38409631 39209503 39559404 39869294 39899249
    39829220 39589210 39319217 39059286 38859362 38289499
    37339642 37149693 37059721 37129745 37259755 37409756
    37569748

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
    = = =
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)