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  • DAY2SVR: Day 2 Convective Outlook

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 05:35:16 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 100535
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 100532

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1232 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

    Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
    NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA...AND SOUTHEAST MARYLAND...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Widely scattered severe storms capable of a few tornadoes and
    damaging wind gusts appear possible over portions of North Carolina,
    Virginia, and southeast Maryland Sunday afternoon and evening. A
    brief tornado or two may occur over portions of the lower Colorado
    Valley Sunday morning, with sporadic occurrences of severe wind
    gusts possible into the Great Basin and central Rockies Sunday
    afternoon and evening.

    ...Synopsis...

    A mid/upper-level low over KY and TN Sunday morning is forecast to
    evolve into an open wave while progressing into the Mid-Atlantic by
    Sunday night. That system will be preceded by a focused corridor of
    height falls and a belt of 45-55+ kt southwesterly flow in the
    midlevels, which will overspread the Carolinas and southern
    Mid-Atlantic during the day. While the primary surface low will
    remain displaced to the northwest of the warm sector, secondary
    cyclogenesis is forecast during the afternoon over central VA at the
    junction of a cool front/trough advancing east from the Blue Ridge
    and a warm front lifting north into the Mid-Atlantic.

    Elsewhere, the remnants of Tropical Storm Rachel will weaken while
    accelerating from southern CA into the Great Basin within a belt of
    50-60 kt midlevel flow. The associated surface circulation/low will
    likewise develop from southern CA into northern UT by Sunday
    evening.


    ...Southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas...

    A 40-45 kt low-level jet will persist over the Piedmont and Coastal
    Plain, enhancing the poleward transport of a moist boundary layer, characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at 12Z Sunday within the
    expanding warm sector with lingering clouds and areas of
    precipitation limiting daytime heating and resultant destabilization
    at many locations. Nonetheless, a moist and at least marginally
    unstable air mass will coincide with strengthening low-level and
    deep-layer shear, which may support transient supercells with the
    threat for a brief tornado or two and/or strong wind gusts spreading
    from the Carolinas into the southern Mid-Atlantic on Sunday.

    A higher-probability risk for sustained supercells capable of a few
    tornadoes and damaging winds may materialize by afternoon into
    evening from portions of central and eastern NC into south-central
    into southeast VA, where the 00Z REFS and HREF guidance indicates a
    corridor of locally stronger instability (SBCAPE up to 1000-1250
    J/kg). Those areas have been upgraded to 5% tornado and 15% wind
    probabilities and a related Level-2/Slight Risk.


    ...Lower Colorado Valley into the Great Basin and central Rockies...


    A low-level moisture plume (e.g., dewpoints in the mid 50s to
    mid-upper 60s) originating from the Gulf of CA will reside over the
    lower-CO Valley Sunday morning, with REFS and HREF guidance
    indicating SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Relatively strong vertical
    shear, aided by the low-level mass response to the remnant Rachel
    circulation, will be more than sufficient for supercells and bowing
    structures capable of isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief
    tornado or two over the lower-CO Valley Sunday morning.

    As mentioned in the synopsis, the system will weaken through the
    day, leading to greater uncertainty in the extent of any associated
    severe weather threat during the afternoon into evening. That said,
    corridors of modest instability are expected to develop across
    portions of the Great Basin into the central Rockies, which combined
    with relatively strong cloud-bearing shear will be supportive of
    widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly severe wind gusts.

    ..Mead.. 10/10/2026

    $$
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 17:03:18 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 101703
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 101701

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1201 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

    Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing gusty
    winds and a tornado or two will be possible across parts of the
    Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Additional strong storms are expected across
    parts of the Southwest and Great Basin.

    ...Carolinas to Mid-Atlantic...

    Strong deep-layer flow will overspread the region as the remnants of
    Isaias merge with upper troughing from the Ohio Valley to the
    Southeast. The surface low is expected to be over the central
    Appalachians Sunday morning, and will shift east/northeast across
    the Mid-Atlantic through early Monday. A surface front will extend
    south of the low and shift east across the region. Within the
    pre-frontal warm sector, a very moist airmass will be in place.
    Showers and cloudiness are expected across much of the area, and
    lapse rates will remain poor, limiting widespread stronger
    destabilization. However, a corridor of around 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE
    may develop from eastern/central NC into VA, with more limited
    destabilization expected across the broader region.

    Given the strong flow field associated with the
    remnant/post-tropical system, transient supercell features could
    occur in one or more pre-frontal bands of convection. Isolated
    strong to severe gusts will be possible, along with a tornado or
    two.

    ...Southwest/Great Basin vicinity...

    Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Lower CO Valley
    to the Great Basin/central Rockies as an upper trough slowly digs
    and shifts east across the Pacific coast. The remnants of prior
    tropical storm Rachel will partially be responsible for enhancement
    of midlevel flow, and for modest boundary layer moisture across the
    Lower CO Valley. This system is expected to gradually weaken as it
    shifts northeast toward the Great Basin/central Rockies through the
    period.

    Pockets of modest destabilization amid favorable vertical shear will
    support bands of convection. Some transient supercell features will
    be possible. Given favorable shear and strong background flow, a few
    strong gusts and a tornado or two will be possible. The northeast
    extent of severe potential remains somewhat uncertain. Instability
    will wane with northward extent, but strong deep-layer flow may
    continue to support gusty winds with convective showers and isolated thunderstorms into parts of UT and western CO.

    ..Leitman.. 10/10/2026

    $$
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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 04:57:30 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 110457
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 110455

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1155 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

    Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    No severe weather is expected Monday through Monday night.

    ...Synopsis...

    An upper low initially over the Columbia Basin will develop south to
    the Sierra Nevada, while an embedded vorticity maximum progresses
    through the basal portion that feature from central/southern CA
    through the lower-CO Valley into the Great Basin. Downstream from
    those developments, a low-amplitude short-wave trough is forecast to
    translate from the northern or central High Plains into the upper
    Midwest and neighboring Upper Great Lakes regions by Monday night.
    At the surface, an area of low pressure initially over central NE
    will develop along a boundary into southern MN by late afternoon or
    early evening before reaching central WI Monday night.


    ...Upper Midwest...

    A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region on
    Monday, atop a moistening boundary layer, yielding a moderately
    unstable but capped air mass by afternoon along and south of the
    surface boundary and approaching cyclone. Elevated thunderstorms are
    expected to develop to the north of the surface warm sector over the
    northern Plains Monday morning within a zone of forcing for ascent
    preceding the short-wave trough. That convective regime is expected
    to spread into portions of MN and WI late Monday afternoon into
    night, amidst a thermodynamic environment featuring MUCAPE generally
    less than 1000 J/kg. While a few instances of hail approaching one
    inch appear possible, larger sizes are expected to be limited by the
    marginal instability and generally less than 30-35 kt of effective
    bulk shear.


    ...Lower Colorado Valley into the Great Basin...

    Increased forcing for ascent ahead of the vorticity maximum is
    expected to foster an areal increase in low-topped thunderstorms
    Monday afternoon, which are likely to continue into Monday night.
    Generally weak instability should limit severe weather potential;
    however, in areas where low-level lapse rates can sufficiently
    steepen, the downward transfer of stronger winds aloft could yield a
    few gusts approaching 58 mph. Some small hail may also accompany the
    strongest updrafts.

    ..Mead.. 10/11/2026

    $$
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 17:05:54 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 111705
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 111703

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1203 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

    Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    No severe weather is expected Monday through Monday night.

    ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...

    An upper shortwave trough will develop northeast from the central
    High Plains to the Great Lakes on Monday. This will bring a belt of
    mildly enhanced westerly mid/upper flow across the region, with an
    increasing southwesterly low-level jet expected by Monday evening
    from the Mid-MS Valley into MI. At the surface, low pressure will
    shift east across MN/WI/MI, with a trailing cold front surging
    east/southeast across the central Plains and Upper Midwest. A warm
    front will be oriented west to east across northern WI to northern
    Lower MI. Elevated thunderstorms may develop by 00z near and north
    of this boundary on the edge of the increasing low-level jet and
    stronger warm advection ahead of the surface low/cold front. Cooling
    aloft will result in a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates
    supporting modest elevated instability. Small hail may occur with
    stronger updrafts within the modestly sheared environment across
    northern WI/the U.P. of MI and portions of northern Lower MI during
    the evening and overnight hours. Overall severe potential is
    expected to remain limited by modest instability and capping across
    the warm sector, precluding severe probabilities.

    ...Southwest/Great Basin...

    Lingering moisture across the Southwest and Great Basin will support
    scattered showers and thunderstorms within enhanced deep-layer
    southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching upper low and attendant
    trough. Meager destabilization will limit severe potential, though
    some gusty winds are possible given stronger synoptic flow.

    ...Southern High Plains...

    A few thunderstorms will be possible along a surface trough/dryline
    across western TX/eastern NM as low-level moisture returns north and
    west across the southern Plains. Modest vertical shear and weak
    instability should limit severe potential, though some locally gusty
    outflow winds are possible given steepened low-level lapse rates due
    to daytime heating into the upper 80s/low 90s.

    ..Leitman.. 10/11/2026

    $$
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 12 05:20:12 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 120519
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 120517

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1217 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

    Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
    THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging
    winds appear possible over portions of the central and southern
    Plains into the lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon into night.
    More isolated severe weather may occur from southwest Texas into the
    mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of New York.

    ...Synopsis...

    An upper low will progress through the Great Basin toward the
    central Rockies/Four Corners with a downstream belt of enhanced
    mid/upper-level winds stretching from the southern Rockies through
    the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Within that airstream, a
    short-wave trough will progress from the Great Lakes into the
    Northeast, while a more subtle impulse translates from the southern
    Rockies into the Upper Midwest.

    At the surface, an area of low pressure will develop from the Great
    Lakes into the Northeast with a trailing front stretching through
    the southern Great Lakes and southern IA into central or southwest
    KS, where it will link with a secondary surface low. Dryline will
    extend south from the KS low to along the TX-NM border by late
    afternoon or early evening.


    ...Central and Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley...

    Level-2/Slight Risk wind and hail probabilities have been extended
    to the St. Joseph and Kansas City, MO vicinities in this forecast
    update to account for greater severe storm potential in a favorable
    CAPE-shear parameter space.

    Southerly low-level winds will maintain a moist boundary layer
    within the warm sector with dewpoints in the mid 60s to low-mid 70s
    F. While midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, the
    moist environment coupled with daytime heating will contribute to a
    moderately unstable air mass by afternoon with MLCAPE of 1000-2000
    J/kg. Slight height falls aloft combined with daytime heating and
    convergence along the surface boundaries are expected to eliminate
    remaining capping, yielding thunderstorm development by mid
    afternoon initially from the TX and OK Panhandles into central KS.
    Subsequent storm development is anticipated by late afternoon into
    evening farther northeast along the front into the lower-MO Valley.
    A more isolated wind and hail threat could spread into portions of
    southern IA and IL Tuesday evening and night. Finally, a separate
    round of strong to severe storms appears possible Tuesday night into
    early Wednesday over portions of southwest TX and the Permian Basin.

    Within the level-2/Slight Risk area, vertically veering wind
    profiles with 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear will favor supercells as
    the initial storm mode with large hail being the primary hazard,
    both along and to the north of the front. There is some model signal
    that the KS segment of the front may tend to surge south during the
    afternoon into evening, which would suggest the potential for a
    relatively quick transition to a more outflow-dominant storm mode
    and an associated damaging wind threat. Tornado potential will be
    conditional on supercell storm modes persisting into evening when
    the low-level jet and associated near-ground shear increase.


    ...New York...

    Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12Z Tuesday within a
    zone of low-level warm advection and moisture transport preceding
    the short-wave trough and surface low. Lingering clouds and areas of precipitation are likely to inhibit air mass destabilization,
    especially with eastward extent into the Hudson Valley. However,
    where cloud breaks can occur, the presence of boundary-layer
    dewpoints in the low-mid 60s will contribute to modest MLCAPE up to
    500-750 J/kg by afternoon. On the condition that surface-based
    storms can develop and become sustained, the existence of a strongly
    sheared kinematic environment (particularly in the low levels) would
    favor supercells capable of a tornado or two and damaging winds.
    This forecast update will maintain level-1/Marginal Risk
    probabilities due to uncertainties in the extent of air mass
    destabilization.

    ..Mead.. 10/12/2026

    $$
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 12 17:01:16 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 121700
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 121658

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1158 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

    Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
    THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging
    winds appear possible over portions of the central and southern
    Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon into night.
    More isolated severe weather may occur from southwest Texas into the
    mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of New York.

    ...Central/Southern Plains to Mid-MS Valley...

    An upper low and attendant trough will migrate east across the
    Southwest on Tuesday, allowing a band of enhanced southwesterly
    mid/upper flow to overspread the region. At the surface, a weak lee
    low and surface trough will develop from western KS through far west
    TX. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will extend from the Upper
    Midwest southwestward through northern KS. This boundary will sag
    south and east through the period. Southerly low-level flow across
    the warm sector between these features will maintain mid 60s to low
    70s F dewpoints across much of the southern Plains into KS and the
    Lower MO Valley. While midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain
    modest across the Plains, heating into the mid 80s to low 90s will
    support moderate destabilization of the very moist airmass, with
    MLCAPE of 1250-2000 J/kg common from parts of northwest TX into the
    Lower MO Valley.

    Capping is expected to erode by mid to late afternoon, and isolated
    to scattered convection is expected by 00z near the triple point and
    northeast along the cold front into the Lower MO Valley. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop near the surface trough across
    portions of western TX during the evening as a southwesterly
    low-level jet strengthens. Vertically veering wind profiles and 40+
    kt effective shear magnitudes will support initial supercells
    capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts. Where
    low-level SRH is maximized near the triple point and surface front,
    a tornado or two also could occur. As the low-level jet increases
    and expands northward overnight, additional thunderstorm development
    is expected along and north of the surface front from the Lower MO
    Valley into northern IL. This activity may tend to be elevated on
    the cool side of the surface boundary and pose a risk for marginal
    hail and gusty winds. If convection along the surface can maintain
    near-surface based character, damaging wind potential could be
    greater across parts of MO/IL, but this scenario is uncertain.

    ...Western NY...

    An upper shortwave trough will shift east from the Upper Great Lakes
    to the Northeast on Tuesday. Deep-layer westerly flow will increase
    across the Lower Great Lakes vicinity as this occurs, and a surface
    low will spread eastward across the region. Ahead of an
    eastward-developing cold front, low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints
    are forecast. While a moist airmass will reside across the region,
    early day clouds and showers/thunderstorms will result in
    questionable destabilization during the afternoon. If sufficient destabilization can occur, a few strong thunderstorms could develop
    within the moist and strongly sheared environment, posing a risk of
    locally gusty winds.

    ..Leitman.. 10/12/2026

    $$
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 13 05:17:36 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 130517
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 130515

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1215 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

    Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
    OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU...AND IN PARTS OF THE
    UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts
    are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Ozark
    Plateau, and in the parts of the upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
    Wednesday afternoon and evening.

    ...Synopsis...

    An upper low centered near the Four Corners Wednesday morning is
    forecast to gradually weaken while progressing into the central High
    Plains by early Thursday. Within the southeast periphery of the low,
    a vorticity maximum is expected to advance from the southern Rockies
    into the central High Plains in tandem with a 50-60 kt jet streak in
    the mid levels. Elsewhere, a series of vorticity maxima (some of
    convective origin) are forecast to translate from the mid-MS Valley
    to the southern Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will move
    south through the Mid-Atlantic, OH and mid-MS Valleys, and into
    portions of the southern Plains. The western segment of the front
    over the southern Plains may eventually stall and perhaps retreat
    north Wednesday night in response to falling pressures over the
    central Plains.


    ...Southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau...

    Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z
    Wednesday, along and ahead of the cold front, aided by modest warm
    advection and moisture transport along a weakening nocturnal
    low-level jet. The presence of a seasonably moist (e.g., dewpoints
    in the mid 60s to mid 70s F) and at least marginally unstable air
    mass will likely support the continuation of showers and
    thunderstorms through the day in some areas. On the southern fringe
    of any more persistent clouds and precipitation, stronger heating
    may contribute to corridors of moderate instability by afternoon
    where MLCAPE may approach 1500-2000 J/kg. That destabilization
    process will coincide with strengthening vertical shear and forcing
    for ascent preceding the southern Rockies disturbance, yielding an
    environment supportive of isolated strong to severe storms during
    the afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the
    primary hazard with the best potential for a few occurrences of
    severe hail being in southwest TX.


    ...Upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...

    Daytime heating combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid
    60s to low 70s F is expected to contribute to pockets of moderate
    instability with MLCAPE approaching 1000-1250 J/kg by mid-late
    afternoon ahead of the cold front. Aided by forcing for ascent
    preceding the series of vorticity maxima approaching from the west, thunderstorms are expected to develop and subsequently increase in
    areal coverage along the front at that time. Steepening low-level
    lapse rates coupled with strengthening west-southwesterly winds with
    height (yielding up to 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear) appear
    supportive of isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts
    into evening.

    ..Mead.. 10/13/2026

    $$
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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 13 17:32:14 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 131732
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 131730

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1230 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

    Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...ACROSS OKLAHOMA...TO THE WESTERN OZARK PLATEAU...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts, isolated
    hail and a tornado or two are possible across portions of the
    southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau, and in the parts of the
    upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon and evening.

    ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks...
    An upper low, initially over the Four Corners, is forecast move
    eastward over the High Plains while southwesterly flow aloft
    increases. A series of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima will
    move along a cold front through the Mid-Atlantic, OH and mid-MS
    Valleys, and into portions of the southern Plains. Western portions
    of the front, modified by convection, may eventually stall and
    perhaps retreat north Wed night in response to falling pressures
    with a deepening lee low over eastern CO and the central Plains.

    Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, in one or more clusters, are
    likely to be ongoing from the mid MS valley into southern/eastern KS
    and central OK at 12z Wed. The cold front will likely be reinforced
    by the convection with the morning outflow potentially causing it to
    sag slowly across central OK and the western Ozarks Plateau through
    the day. To the south of the boundary, the air mass should remain
    very moist (70s F dewpoints), with modest heating contributing to
    weak to moderate diurnal destabilization. Large-scale ascent will
    gradually increase as the upper low approaches, aiding in
    thunderstorm redevelopment along the dryline across the TX
    Panhandle/western OK, and within the broader warm sector by early
    afternoon. Increasing deep-layer shear (40-50 kt) will be supportive
    of a mix of organized supercells and lines/clusters. Damaging winds
    are the most likely threat given modest low/mid-level lapse rates
    and a mixed convective mode. However, isolated hail and perhaps a
    tornado, are also possible with any more persistent supercells.

    As the main upper low moves eastward into the evening/overnight, the
    stalled surface front may gradually return northward as a warm front
    across OK and KS. The air mass will remain very moist, aided by
    further moisture advection associated with a developing 30-40 kt
    low-level jet. As low-level warm air advection increases near the
    boundary, storm redevelopment is possible through the
    evening/overnight. Expanding low-level hodographs (ESRH 150-200
    m2/s2) and the very moist PBL could support a tornado or two with
    any supercells or linear clusters able to develop near the surface
    low and warm front into early Thursday.

    ...OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic...
    Daytime heating combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid
    60s to low 70s F is expected to contribute to pockets of moderate
    instability with MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg by mid-late afternoon ahead
    of the cold front. Thunderstorms ongoing over the mid MS valley, and
    additional development from the aforementioned vorticity maxima, are
    expected to increase in areal coverage along the front through the
    afternoon. Steepening low-level lapse rates coupled with
    strengthening west-southwesterly winds with height (yielding up to
    35-40 kt of deep-layer shear) appear supportive of isolated damaging
    wind gusts into evening.

    ..Lyons.. 10/13/2026

    $$
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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 14 05:24:22 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 140524
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 140521

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1221 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

    Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
    THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
    brief tornado or two are possible over portions of the
    mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon and evening.

    ...Synopsis...

    A short-wave trough over central Canada Thursday morning is forecast
    to undergo considerable amplification while translating into the
    Great Lakes late Thursday night/early Friday. Ahead of that feature,
    an upper low will weaken into an increasingly sheared open wave
    while accelerating from the central High Plains into the Midwest.
    That pattern evolution will yield a steadily strengthening
    deep-layer wind field over the mid-MS and OH Valleys through the
    forecast period. At the surface, an area of low pressure is expected
    to develop along a warm front from central or eastern KS through the
    mid-MS and OH Valleys to the lower Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a
    trailing cold front will surge south through much of the southern
    Plains, Ozark Plateau, and mid-MS Valley.


    ...Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys...

    Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing
    Thursday morning from the central Plains into the mid-MS Valley
    ahead of the surface low and within a zone of low-level warm
    advection and the possible influence of a lead disturbance moving
    through the region. A subset of the morning storms is likely to
    continue through the remainder of the day with convective outflow
    and clouds limiting air mass destabilization in those areas.

    A relatively narrow plume of upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will
    be advected into the northern extension of the system warm sector,
    contributing to MLCAPE up to 500-1000 J/kg by mid to late afternoon
    in areas peripheral to active convection. A subsequent increase in surface-based storm coverage and intensity is expected at that time
    from east-central MO into central and southern IL. The presence of
    40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear will be supportive of transient
    supercell and bowing structures capable of isolated damaging wind
    gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two through the evening.

    The duration and eastward extent of the damaging wind threat remain
    in question Thursday night in the mid to upper-OH Valley. Model
    soundings indicate a shallow, near-ground inversion developing
    within the warm sector as the surface low outpaces better low-level
    moisture return. However, widely spaced damaging wind gusts may
    still remain possible given the presence of 40-50 kt winds within
    the lowest km above ground.


    ...Southern Plains/Ozark Plateau...

    A few strong storms capable of gusty winds and/or small hail appear
    possible Thursday afternoon and evening along the cold front
    progressing through the region. Poor midlevel lapse rates, weak
    low-level winds, and deep-layer shear vectors oriented parallel to
    the progressive/undercutting front are likely to lead to
    outflow-dominant, disorganized convective modes, limiting severe
    weather potential.

    ..Mead.. 10/14/2026

    $$
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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 14 17:29:00 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 141728
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 141726

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1226 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

    Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
    brief tornado or two are possible over portions of the
    mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon and evening.

    ...Synopsis...

    An upper trough will dig south and east across the northern/central
    Plains and Upper Midwest on Thursday. As this occurs, a shortwave
    disturbance over the southern/central Plains will lift northeast,
    eventually overspreading the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys ahead of the
    developing larger-scale upper trough. A plume of moisture from the
    southern Plains to the Ohio Valley and persistent warm advection
    will support areas of scattered showers and thunderstorms, with some
    severe thunderstorm potential developing across the Ohio Valley.

    ...Mid-MS and OH Valleys...

    Height falls associated with the lead upper shortwave impulse will
    develop over south-central IL during the day and spread
    east/northeast into the evening. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms
    will reinforce an outflow/effective warm front from near the MS
    River eastward roughly near the I-70 corridor across IL/IN. This
    early day convection and associated cloud cover within a corridor of
    persistent low-level warm advection will impact warm sector
    destabilization, the degree to which remains uncertain.
    Nevertheless, a narrow plume of upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints
    will support a corridor of around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE, despite expected
    poor lapse rates. Modest vertically veering wind profiles in the low
    levels, combined with 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes will support
    transient supercells and bowing segments as additional convection
    develops toward late afternoon/early evening amid an increasing
    low-level jet and ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front.
    Isolated strong to severe wind gusts will be possible with this
    activity, in addition to a tornado or two (mainly across
    south-central IL to central IN). Conditionally higher tornado
    probabilities may be possible in later outlooks depending mesoscale
    trends in the near-surface boundary layer influenced by early-day
    convection.

    Instability will wane with eastward extent across OH during the
    nighttime hours and severe potential should gradually wane as storms
    shift east/northeast.

    ...Southern Plains...

    Scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of a
    southeastward-advancing cold front from southwest TX toward southern
    OK. A moist and modestly unstable airmass will reside across the
    region, but vertical shear is expected to remain marginal (and flow
    below 700 mb generally weak). Boundary-parallel shear vectors also
    will support anafrontal/undercutting convective processes.
    Furthermore, midlevel lapse rates also will remain poor. A stronger
    storm producing gusty winds or small hail could occur, but overall
    severe potential is expected to remain limited.

    ..Leitman.. 10/14/2026

    $$
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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 15 05:25:54 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 150525
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 150523

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1223 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

    Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
    THE MID-ATLANTIC...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Scattered severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
    brief tornado or two are possible in parts of the Mid-Atlantic
    Friday afternoon and evening.

    ...Synopsis...

    The models continue to slow the progression of an intense midlevel
    trough, which will track through the Mississippi Valley and Great
    Lakes toward the Appalachians by early Saturday. An attending belt
    of strong, southwesterly mid/upper-level flow (e.g., 70-90 kt at 500
    mb) will precede the trough, the eastern edge of which will
    overspread the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. In the low levels, a
    surface cyclone will develop from the lower Great Lakes into the
    Gulf of St. Lawrence, while a trailing cold front advances from the
    lower Great Lakes/upper-Ohio Valley regions Friday morning to off
    the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Friday night.


    ...Mid-Atlantic...

    Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12Z Friday from northern
    PA and NY into New England, with lingering clouds and decreasing
    boundary-layer moisture with northward extent limiting air mass
    destabilization in the vicinity of the surface low. Farther south
    ahead of the cold front, greater diabatic heating will combine with
    dewpoints in the 60s to around 70 F to yield MLCAPE approaching
    500-750 J/kg by mid afternoon. Overall CAPE depth and magnitude will
    be limited by warm temperatures aloft on the anticyclonic side of
    the upper-level jet streak.

    Renewed thunderstorm development is anticipated by late morning or
    early afternoon along the front over eastern OH and WV into western
    parts of PA and NY. An increase in storm coverage and intensity is
    expected through the remainder of the afternoon as the front
    encounters a more unstable air mass with eastward extent. Vertical
    shear will be strong with effective bulk shear magnitudes of 45-55
    kt, suggesting the potential for embedded supercells and/or bowing
    structures within the line. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary
    hazard, though a brief tornado or two appear possible in the
    Delaware River Valley and Delmarva, where locally stronger low-level
    shear is forecast during the late afternoon into early evening.

    An upgrade to Level-2/Slight Risk has been included with this
    forecast update to highlight the area where the most favorable
    overlap of instability and vertical shear is forecast from mid
    afternoon into early evening.

    ..Mead.. 10/15/2026

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 15 17:28:04 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 151727
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 151725

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

    Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
    THE MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Scattered damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may accompany a
    squall line that is expected across the Mid-Atlantic into New
    England tomorrow (Friday).

    ...Synopsis...
    A pronounced, positively tilted upper trough will continue to
    amplify as it rapidly approaches the East Coast tomorrow (Friday).
    Accompanying this upper trough will be a strong surface cyclone,
    which will track from the eastern Great Lakes to northern New
    England during the day. A marginally unstable airmass will advect
    ahead of a surface trough attendant from the cyclone, supporting
    deep-moist convective potential amid an environment characterized by
    strong forcing and vertical wind shear. As such, severe storms will
    be possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New
    England late tomorrow morning into the evening hours.

    ...Mid-Atlantic into southern New England...
    As the upper trough amplifies and the surface cyclone deepens over
    the northern Appalachians, low-level convergence along the attendant
    surface trough will increase into the morning hours, resulting in
    the development of low-topped convection that will quickly evolve
    into a squall line across western NY/PA. The northward advection of
    mid 60s F surface dewpoints beneath 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates
    will result in 500 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis ahead of the
    line, with locally higher values approaching 1000 J/kg in spots.
    Some guidance members suggest that surface airmass recovery may be
    brief ahead of the squall line given the potential for widespread
    antecedent cloud cover. Still, strong tropospheric wind fields will
    accompany the squall line, with forecast soundings showing 50+ kt
    flow as low as 800-700 mb, with 35-40 kt flow contained within the
    boundary layer, just above the surface.

    Regardless of the degree of destabilization that precedes the squall
    line, downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft within
    the squall line should support strong to occasionally severe surface
    gusts, mostly in the 35-55 kt range. Scattered instances of
    tree/wire damage are expected, starting from around western PA
    during the late morning hours, to the East Coast around early
    evening.

    ..Squitieri.. 10/15/2026

    $$
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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 16 05:26:08 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 160525
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 160524

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1224 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

    Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    No severe weather is expected tomorrow (Saturday).

    ...Synopsis...
    Upper ridging and a surface anticyclone will overspread most of the
    CONUS as an upper trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow
    (Saturday). A relatively cool, stable airmass accompanying the
    surface anticyclone will suppress thunderstorm development over most
    locales. A surface cold front associated with the exiting upper
    trough will sweep across the FL Peninsula during the day, providing
    enough lift of a preceding moist airmass to support a couple of
    thunderstorms. Scant buoyancy, driven by cooler mid-level
    temperatures, will accompany a mid-level impulse over the Lower
    Colorado River Basin, where enough lift may be present to support a
    few lightning flashes.

    ..Squitieri.. 10/16/2026

    $$
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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 16 17:26:38 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 161726
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 161724

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1224 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

    Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms are not expected Saturday.

    ...Synopsis...
    The majority of the CONUS will be dominated by a cool/dry air mass
    with no potential for deep convection in the wake of a cold frontal
    passage off the southeast Atlantic coast. One exception will be
    across central/south FL where moist profiles (PW greater than 2
    inches) and ascent along the cold front will support scattered
    thunderstorms. A second possible exception will be across the
    Desert Southwest as midlevel moisture and ascent increase gradually
    near and east of a weak closed low over northern Baja. Buoyancy
    rooted in the midlevels will be weak but could become sufficiently
    deep for charge separation and isolated lightning flashes the latter
    half of the period.

    ..Thompson.. 10/16/2026

    $$
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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 17 05:47:46 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 170547
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 170545

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1245 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

    Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms are not expected tomorrow (Sunday).

    ...Synopsis...
    A mid-level ridge will remain over the central U.S. while a 500 mb
    cut-off low meanders off of the Atlantic Coast and broad upper
    troughing dominates the western CONUS tomorrow (Sunday). A
    relatively cool and stable low-level airmass will overspread much of
    the CONUS, inhibiting thunderstorm development. A few thunderstorms
    may occur over the southern FL Peninsula, where the heating of
    remnant low-level moisture will promote localized lift and buoyancy.
    A couple of lightning flashes may also occur over portions of the
    Desert Southwest, where cooler temperatures aloft and modest ascent
    will accompany a weak mid-level impulse.

    ..Squitieri.. 10/17/2026

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 17 17:01:52 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 171701
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 171659

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1159 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

    Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

    ...Synopsis...
    A strong upper trough will move east across central Canada on
    Sunday, with a weak upper ridge over the central/southern Plains.
    This ridge will be flanked by an upper low off the coastal
    Carolinas, and a weak positive-tilt wave moving from northern Baja
    CA into AZ.

    At the surface, a prominent high will extend from New England all
    the way into the southern Plains, with offshore winds across the
    Gulf and East Coast. This will maintain a stable pattern over most
    of the CONUS. The exceptions will be over AZ and far southern FL.

    For AZ, midlevel moisture will stream northward ahead of the
    shortwave trough. Cool midlevel temperatures may yield a few
    thunderstorms during the day.

    For southern FL, a northeast surface flow regime will maintain a
    moist and marginally unstable air mass, and the high PWAT
    environment should support a few thunderstorms moving southwestward
    across the area.

    ..Jewell.. 10/17/2026

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 18 05:52:48 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 180552
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 180550

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

    Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms are not expected tomorrow (Monday).

    ...Synopsis...
    A mid-level cut-off low will continue to meander off of the East
    Coast while an upper trough amplifies over the western U.S. and an
    upper ridge dominates the central CONUS tomorrow (Monday). Surface
    high pressure and accompanying subsidence should limit thunderstorm
    development over most locales east of the Rockies. A couple of
    thunderstorms may develop over the FL Keys given adequate surface
    heating of a moist low-level airmass. A few thunderstorms may also
    occur over the Desert Southwest to the Four Corners, where cooler
    temperatures aloft with a mid-level impulse overspreads modest
    low-level moisture.

    ..Squitieri.. 10/18/2026

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 18 16:59:54 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 181659
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 181658

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1158 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

    Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

    ...Synopsis...
    An upper low will linger off the East Coast while an upper trough
    amplifies just off the West Coast. Meanwhile, a leading wave will
    affect the area from Baja CA into the Four Corners states.

    Instability will be minimal over most of the CONUS due to an area of
    high pressure, with the surface ridge extending from the Great
    Lakes/Upper Midwest to the Gulf Coast. The exceptions will be near
    the FL Keys where moist easterly winds will persist, supporting
    scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, and over AZ and NM, where
    midlevel moisture will support weak instability. In either case,
    severe weather is not anticipated due to weak instability.

    ..Jewell.. 10/18/2026

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 19 05:35:58 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 190535
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 190533

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1233 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

    Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    No severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday.

    ...Synopsis...
    An upper trough will deepen along the West Coast on Tuesday,
    resulting in a broad low-level mass response with a return flow of
    low-level moisture across the Desert Southwest into the Great Basin
    and central High Plains regions. Deep-layer ascent associated with
    this broad axis of low-level moisture will result in at least widely
    scattered thunderstorm development through the day across the Great
    Basin into the Desert Southwest and High Plains. A couple instances
    of strong surface wind gusts may accompany thunderstorms in the
    Lower Colorado River Basin given stronger flow fields aloft. At the
    moment though, buoyancy appears too limited to support an organized
    severe gust threat, so severe probabilities have been withheld this
    outlook. By later Tuesday night, cooler mid-level temperatures
    associated with the upper trough will overspread a marine boundary
    layer along the CA coastline, promoting thunderstorm chances here as
    well.

    ..Squitieri.. 10/19/2026

    $$
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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 19 17:17:20 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 191715
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 191714

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1214 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

    Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    No severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday. A few strong storms
    may affect parts of Arizona late Tuesday night.

    ...Synopsis...
    High pressure will extend from eastern Canada southwestward to the
    Gulf of America on Tuesday, maintaining stable conditions over most
    of the central and eastern states on Tuesday. Farther west, a deep
    upper trough will exist just off the West Coast, with increasing
    southwest winds aloft from CA into UT and AZ.

    Strong daytime heating may support isolated thunderstorms from the
    Great Basin into AZ, though an inversion above 500 mb should
    minimize updraft strength.

    A greater chance of possibly strong thunderstorms may develop
    overnight into AZ as temperatures aloft cool, and, winds increase
    out of the south. This enhanced upslope may support additional
    storms along and north of the Mogollon Rim, and shear will be
    stronger at that time. Instability may only be marginally
    supportive, with the greater risk developing after 12Z Wednesday
    morning.

    ..Jewell.. 10/19/2026

    $$
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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 20 06:00:44 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 200600
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 200558

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1258 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

    Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
    CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ARIZONA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe hail/wind and perhaps a tornado may occur over portions of
    Arizona, southern Utah and western New Mexico on Wednesday.

    ...Synopsis...
    A mid-level trough will move ashore through the day Wednesday,
    promoting large-scale ascent of a moistening airmass across the
    Desert Southwest to the Four Corners region. Scattered thunderstorms
    are expected over these regions, and given the anticipated overlap
    of marginal to moderate buoyancy with a highly sheared airmass, a
    few severe thunderstorms are possible.

    ...Desert Southwest to the Four Corners...
    Marginal instability should develop through the day, primarily
    driven by increasing low-level warm-air and moisture advection
    (given ample cloud cover expected). Surface dewpoints should
    increase into the 60s F, especially over central AZ, yielding over
    1500 J/kg MLCAPE given 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates. A 50-70 kt
    southwesterly 500 mb jet will overspread the warm sector and
    accompanying southeasterly antecedent flow, yielding elongated
    hodographs with sizeable low-level curvature. Supercell
    thunderstorms are expected by late afternoon, accompanied by a
    severe wind and hail threat. Given the size of the low-level
    hodographs, a tornado or two may also occur.

    ...Central to southern CA Shoreline...
    The core of an 80 kt 500 mb jet will overspread central and southern
    CA during the later half of the period (00-12Z Thursday), resulting
    in relatively straight but highly elongated hodographs. During this
    time frame, a moist marine airmass will advect to the CA shoreline
    while being overspread by 6.5-7 C/km mid-level lapse rates, yielding
    250-500 J/kg of short and thin MLCAPE. Given the scant buoyancy,
    convection should be low-topped, with short line segments and
    supercell modes possible. A damaging gust or two is the main threat
    with any stronger storm that can reach the shore, as well as a
    landfalling waterspout.

    ..Squitieri.. 10/20/2026

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 20 17:56:04 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 201755
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 201754

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1254 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

    Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

    ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
    OF ARIZONA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms including large hail and tornado risks are
    expected on Wednesday especially across Arizona and nearby parts of
    the Four Corners area and Lower Colorado River Valley. A localized
    severe risk may also exist along the coast of central/southern
    California.

    ...Arizona/Lower Colorado River Valley/Four Corners...
    Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, including the
    potential for a full-period/multi-round of severe weather for some
    areas. A climatologically rare and a concerning/well-above-typical
    risk for severe storms is expected, potentially including all severe
    hazards with large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes all possible.

    Ahead of a prominent/deep upper trough approaching the California
    coast, this scenario is attributable to a notable strengthening of
    deep-layer winds (southwesterly above the boundary layer), along
    with relatively rich low/mid-level moisture. The severe risk should
    tend to peak in most areas during the afternoon and evening, but it
    should be noted that the severe risk, particularly for parts of central/northern Arizona, may persist well through the late-night
    hours of Wednesday night into early Thursday.

    Broadly speaking, there is relatively high confidence that wind
    profiles, with elongated/semi-straight hodographs, combined with
    expected destabilization (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) will support sustained/splitting supercells with viable large hail potential
    particularly with rotating storms, including both right-moving and
    left-moving (generally moving northward) supercell-splitting
    components. Hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter may locally
    occur.

    Forecast soundings imply that storms will be a bit higher based with south-southeastward extent across the desert floor, but lower temperature-dewpoint spreads farther north closer to/in the rim and
    more forested areas of central/northern Arizona, which also
    coincides where more of a southeasterly boundary layer wind
    component may exist, boosting low-level hodograph curvature/SRH and contributing to tornado potential particularly across interior
    central Arizona and a broader part of northern Arizona, and possibly
    even into nearby southeast Nevada and/or far southern Utah.

    ...Coastal southern/central California...
    In closer proximity to the approaching upper low, the core of an 80
    kt 500 mb jet will overspread central and southern California during
    the later half of the period (00-12Z late Wednesday and Thursday),
    resulting in relatively straight but highly elongated hodographs.
    During this time frame, a moist marine airmass will advect into
    coastal areas, while being overspread by 6.5-7 C/km mid-level lapse
    rates, yielding 250-500 J/kg of short and thin MLCAPE. Given the
    scant buoyancy, convection should be low-topped, with short line
    segments and brief/transient supercell modes possible. A few
    damaging wind gusts are the main threat with any stronger storm that
    can reach the shore, but near-coastal waterspout/brief tornado
    potential may also exist.

    ..Guyer.. 10/20/2026

    $$
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 21 05:49:54 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 210549
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 210547

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1247 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

    Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
    CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Southwest and
    Four Corners area on Thursday, with the greatest risk across parts
    of Arizona. All severe hazards will be possible.

    ...Synopsis...
    A broad longwave mid-level trough will traverse the western CONUS on
    Thursday, encouraging continued deep-layer ascent amid the northward
    advection of low-level moisture, promoting scattered to widespread
    thunderstorm development. At least isolated severe thunderstorms are
    possible spanning the Desert Southwest into the Great Basin given
    overlapping marginal buoyancy and widespread strong wind fields
    aloft. However, across portions of the Desert Southwest, an embedded
    mid-level impulse accompanied by a 500 mb speed max atop locally
    higher low-level moisture/instability may promote a more focused
    risk of severe thunderstorms.

    ...Desert Southwest into the Great Basin...
    Deep-layer ascent, combined with at least some degree of surface
    heating ahead of the broader upper trough, will support scattered
    thunderstorm development over the Great Basin during the afternoon.
    Largely unidirectional (southerly) tropospheric flow will yield
    highly elongated, straight hodographs and over 50 kts of effective
    bulk (speed) shear. Given 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates and around
    500 J/kg MLCAPE, transient supercells and small line segments will
    be the main storm modes, accompanied by an isolated severe gust/hail
    threat.

    Farther south into central AZ to far western NM, a 70+ kt 500 mb
    southwesterly speed max with 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates will
    overspread southeasterly low-level flow and low to mid 60s F surface
    dewpoints. This ambient environment, as shown by forecast soundings,
    will yield modestly elongated hodographs, but with appreciable size
    and curvature at the low-levels. Given locally higher moisture, up
    to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE may be realized in tandem with 50+ kts of
    effective bulk shear and over 200 m2/s2 of effective SRH. While CAM
    guidance consensus depicts a complex storm mode and several
    potential cellular interactions, longer-lived, embedded supercell
    structures are possible. Should such storms develop, all severe
    hazards will be possible, including a couple of tornadoes.

    ..Squitieri.. 10/21/2026

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 21 17:32:02 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 211731
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 211729

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1229 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

    Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
    SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Southwest and
    Four Corners area on Thursday, with the greatest risk across parts
    of Arizona. All severe hazards will be possible.

    ...Synopsis...
    An broad upper trough with an embedded upper low off the southern
    California coast will move eastward on Thursday. This feature will
    become more of an open wave with a modest negative tilt with time.
    Above normal low-level moisture will be in place within the
    Southwest. Widely scattered to scattered storms are expected, some
    of which may be strong to severe.

    ...Southwest into parts of the Great Basin...
    Strong meridional flow associated with the approaching upper-trough
    will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest through the
    day. Moisture/destabilization will be more limited with
    northward/eastward extent. Some convection will be possible early in
    the period across much of the region. Depending on where pockets of
    greater heating can occur, widely scattered to scattered storms are
    expected to develop during the afternoon both within the terrain and
    along a surface trough within the central Great Basin. Isolated
    marginally severe hail and severe winds will be the primary
    concerns. The potential for a tornado will increase within southern
    Utah into Arizona where surface flow will be more backed greater destabilization is more probable.

    With the upper-trough becoming more of an open wave with time, the
    most favorable overlap of mid-level ascent, surface heating, and
    steeper mid-level lapse rates will be across parts of southeast
    Arizona. Storms will likely be supercellular initially. Large hail
    (perhaps to around 2 inches) and a couple of tornadoes will be the
    main concern. With time, storm interactions and an increasing linear
    mode will mean a transition to more a wind threat by later in the
    afternoon. Destabilization from the Mogollon Rim northward becomes
    more uncertain given the signal for early clouds/precipitation.

    ...Coastal Southern California...
    As the upper-level low moves overhead during the afternoon,
    temperatures aloft will become quite cold (around -20C at 500 mb).
    Modest surface heating will lead to around 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE,
    potentially. Low-topped convection near the coast is possible during
    the morning into the early afternoon before mid-level ascent begins
    to decrease. Given the ambient vorticity with the upper-low and
    local terrain effects, a brief tornado is possible with the
    strongest storms along with isolated wind damage potential.

    ..Wendt.. 10/21/2026

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 22 06:03:14 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 220602
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 220600

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0100 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

    Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF NEW
    MEXICO...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of New
    Mexico on Friday.

    ...Synopsis...
    A broad upper trough will slowly progress over the Rockies on
    Friday, with a lead mid-level impulse poised to eject into the
    northern Plains while a lagging 500 mb cut-off low drifts eastward
    across the Desert Southwest. Given adequate low-level moisture
    return and deep-layer ascent ahead of the longwave mid-level trough, thunderstorms will be possible across much of the Rockies and the
    central to northern Plains. Isolated severe thunderstorms are
    possible across portions of NM, where locally greater moisture and
    instability reside.

    ...Western into central New Mexico...
    As the aforementioned leading mid-level impulse departs the Rockies
    and the cut-off low approaches NM, 50+ kt southwesterly 500 mb flow
    will overspread the Desert Southwest, where low to mid 50s F surface
    dewpoints amid southeasterly surface flow will be in place. Given
    7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE may
    manifest amid appreciably curved and elongated hodographs, with
    30-40 kts of effective bulk shear likely. By afternoon,
    thunderstorms should develop and intensify with diurnal heating.
    Given the aforementioned vertical shear/buoyancy, some supercell
    structures should develop, accompanied by an isolated severe
    wind/hail threat, and a tornado is also possible.

    ..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026

    $$
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)