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  • DAY3SVR: Day 3 Convective Outlook

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 9 19:31:46 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 091931
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 091930

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0230 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

    Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS
    THE MID ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY INTO
    EASTERN GREAT BASIN...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong thunderstorms on Sunday may impact parts of the Mid Atlantic,
    and the lower Colorado Valley into eastern Great Basin, accompanied
    by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and a couple of
    tornadoes.

    ...Discussion...
    Models indicate further consolidation of troughing within initially
    separate branches of the westerlies, with slow progression inland of
    the Pacific coast Sunday through Sunday night. Within southerly
    flow ahead of the evolving large-scale trough axis, remnants of
    Tropical Storm Rachel are forecast to rapidly advect from the
    southeastern California Sonoran Desert toward the western slopes of
    the Wasatch through the day Sunday. As downstream mid/upper ridging
    builds through the southeastern Great Plains and middle/lower
    Mississippi Valley, it appears that an upper trough and remnant
    mid-level cyclonic circulation will be forced east-northeastward
    across the Appalachians through Mid Atlantic. Associated forcing
    for ascent may support modest secondary surface cyclogenesis to the
    lee of the Blue Ridge, southeast of the weakening remnants of Isaias
    across the Cumberland/Allegheny Plateau vicinity, and in the wake of
    weakening surface ridging shifting offshore of the Atlantic
    Seaboard.

    Spread among the models remains substantive concerning the shorter
    wavelength perturbations, but a couple areas with at least some
    potential for severe thunderstorm development are evident.

    ...Mid Atlantic...
    Given the seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content advecting
    northward toward the Mid Atlantic in advance of the developing
    surface low, there appears potential for boundary-layer
    destabilization coincident with strengthening low-level and
    deep-layer shear. Models suggest that a developing mid-level dry
    slot could provide a focus for the most substantive boundary-layer destabilization by late Sunday afternoon across parts of eastern
    Virginia into eastern North Carolina, where insolation prior to the
    onset of mid-level ascent/cooling may support a period of vigorous
    thunderstorm development. It appears that this could include
    supercell structures within an evolving broken line of storms, which
    may pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes and/or locally damaging
    wind gusts.

    ...Lower Colorado Valley into eastern Great Basin...
    Boundary-layer destabilization and convective potential is more
    unclear along the forecast track of Rachel for Sunday. However,
    given the development of sufficient instability, the remnant strong south-southwesterly wind fields could provide support for organized
    convection, including supercell structures, posing at least a risk
    for damaging wind gusts.

    ..Kerr.. 10/09/2026

    $$
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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 07:23:28 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 100723
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 100721

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0221 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

    Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    No severe weather is expected Monday through Monday night.

    ...Synopsis...

    A midlevel low initially over the Columbia Basin is forecast to
    progress south toward the Sierra Nevada, while an upper-level jet
    streak develops from the lower-CO Valley into the Upper Midwest.
    Ahead of the latter feature, a low-amplitude short-wave trough is
    projected to move from the northern High Plains into the Upper
    Midwest, embedded within a belt of 40-50 kt midlevel flow. In the
    low levels, an area of low pressure loosely related to the
    short-wave trough is expected to develop from the mid-MO Valley into
    the Upper Midwest along a stationary front. A cold front will trail
    southwest from that feature, linking with a secondary cyclone over
    the central High Plains.

    ...Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes...

    A plume of relatively steep midlevel lapse rates of around 7 C/km
    will overlie the northern extension of a moistening boundary layer,
    supporting a corridor of moderate instability by afternoon to the
    south of the surface low and associated front described in the
    synopsis. Capping at the base of the lapse-rate plume/EML is likely
    to inhibit surface-based storm development in the warm sector.
    However, the 00Z models suggest that a cluster of elevated
    thunderstorms may persist Monday afternoon into night to the
    immediate north of the warm sector within a zone of forcing for
    ascent preceding the short-wave trough. While a few strong storms
    capable of small hail appear possible, marginal parcel buoyancy and
    only modest cloud-bearing shear are expected to limit the threat for
    severe weather.

    ..Mead.. 10/10/2026

    $$
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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 19:02:28 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 101902
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 101901

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0201 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

    Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    No severe weather is expected Monday through Monday night.

    ...Discussion...

    An upper low and attendant shortwave trough will pivot across
    portions of the Southwest and Great Basin on Monday. An enhanced
    midlevel jet streak associated with this system and lingering
    boundary layer moisture will support showers and isolated
    thunderstorm activity. Instability will remain weak, limiting severe thunderstorm potential.

    Further northeast, a weak midlevel shortwave impulse will migrate
    northeast from the central High Plains toward the Mid/Upper MS
    Valley, flattening the central U.S. upper ridge. A weak surface low
    over the Upper MS Valley will shift east through the Great Lakes,
    and a trailing cold front will sweep southeast across the Upper
    Midwest to the Mid-MO Valley. Boundary layer moisture will remain
    modest, but cool temperatures aloft will support modest instability
    atop midlevel capping across parts of central/southern WI. A few
    elevated thunderstorms are possible within this modestly sheared and
    weakly unstable environment ahead of the cold front. Small hail
    could occur with the strongest storms. However, severe potential
    appears too limited to include low probabilities at this time.

    Additional thunderstorms are possible across portions of
    south/southeast TX within a low-level warm advection regime on the
    western periphery of surface high pressure centered over the central
    Gulf coast vicinity. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur as a cold
    front develops south across southern FL and the Keys during the
    afternoon.

    ..Leitman.. 10/10/2026

    $$
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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 07:02:36 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 110702
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 110701

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0201 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

    Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
    CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Widely scattered severe storms appear possible over portions of the
    central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon into night. More
    isolated severe weather may occur into the mid Mississippi Valley,
    and in parts of the lower Great Lakes.

    ...Synopsis...

    A midlevel low will slowly progress through the Great Basin with a
    downstream belt of enhanced, mid/upper-level flow extending from the
    southern Rockies into the Great Lakes. Within that airstream, a
    short-wave trough will progress from the Great Lakes into the
    Northeast, while a more subtle disturbance advances from the central
    and southern High Plains into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, an
    area of low pressure associated with the former disturbance
    mentioned above is expected to develop from lower MI through the
    northern Mid-Atlantic into New England with a boundary trailing that
    feature from the southern Great Lakes into the central High Plains,
    where it will link with a deepening lee cyclone over southeast CO.


    ...Central and Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley...

    While midlevel lapse rates are not forecast to be particularly
    steep, daytime heating combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the
    mid 60s to lower 70s is expected to contribute to a moderately
    unstable warm sector by afternoon. The specific details regarding
    convective evolution remain uncertain; however, forcing for ascent
    associated with the midlevel disturbance and convergence in the
    vicinity of the synoptic front, dryline, and lee cyclone are likely
    to aid in diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development. Highest
    confidence in that occurrence remains over portions of southwest KS
    into the OK and TX Panhandles, where the low-level mass response to
    the deepening CO low will be the greatest from late afternoon into
    evening. Vertical shear will be sufficiently strong to support
    supercells capable of mainly large hail initially. Tornado potential
    may increase during the evening with any ongoing supercells as the
    low-level jet strengthens. Upscale growth into one or multiple storm
    complexes appears possible, at which point, the threat for damaging
    winds would correspondingly increase.

    An areal expansion in level-2/Slight Risk probabilities may be
    required in later outlooks once finer-scale details become more
    clear.


    ...Lower Great Lakes...

    Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning within a
    zone of low-level warm advection and moisture transport preceding
    the surface low and short-wave trough. Clouds and precipitation may
    linger into afternoon, limiting the destabilization in those areas.
    However, where stronger heating can occur, the presence of
    boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will support at least a
    marginally unstable environment by afternoon. Both low-level and
    deep-layer shear will be relatively strong, and on the condition
    that surface-based storms develop and are sustained, the threat for
    locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two would exist.

    ..Mead.. 10/11/2026

    $$
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 19:10:30 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 111910
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 111909

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0209 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

    Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Widely scattered severe storms appear possible over portions of the
    central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon into night. More
    isolated severe weather may occur into the mid Mississippi Valley,
    and in parts of the Lower Great Lakes.

    ...Central/Southern Plains to Mid-MS Valley...

    Enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will reside across the region
    on Tuesday in advance of an eastward-propagating upper low over the
    Great Basin to central Rockies vicinity. At the surface, weak lee
    low development is forecast across southeast CO/southwest KS, with
    surface troughing extending southward across the southern High
    Plains. Meanwhile, a surface front will extend from the High Plains
    low east/northeast across northern KS toward northern IL during the
    evening. Southerly low-level flow and a strengthening low-level jet
    will support mid 60s to near 70 F dewpoints across the warm sector
    from portions of western TX into OK/KS and the Mid-MS Valley. While
    midlevel lapse rates are not forecast to be particularly strong,
    rich boundary layer moisture will foster 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE.

    Where stronger heating occurs in closer proximity to the surface
    trough and triple point from northwest TX into central KS,
    supercells will be possible amid vertically veering wind profiles.
    Damaging winds and a tornado or two appear possible within this zone
    of better instability and shear. Convection is likely to increase
    along the breadth of the surface front into the Lower MO/Mid-MS
    Valley as warm advection increases during the evening and overnight
    hours. This convection may tend to be elevated within isentropic
    ascent atop the surface front, further supported by
    boundary-parallel wind profiles. Midlevel temperatures are forecast
    to be cooler, and MUCAPE could approach 1000-1500 J/kg. Marginal
    hail and gusty winds may accompany this activity into the nighttime
    hours.

    ...Lower Great Lakes...

    Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing Tuesday morning
    ahead of an approaching midlevel shortwave impulse over the Great
    Lakes. Deep-layer westerlies will increase through the day as this
    disturbance approaches, resulting in a moderately to strongly
    sheared environment. If sufficient heating can occur, surface
    dewpoints near 60 F will aid in modest destabilization, resulting in
    a conditionally favorable environment for localized strong wind
    gusts and perhaps a tornado.

    ..Leitman.. 10/11/2026

    $$
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 12 07:23:02 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 120722
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 120721

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0221 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

    Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
    OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
    central and southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau Wednesday
    afternoon and evening.

    ...Synopsis...

    An upper low centered over UT and AZ Wednesday morning is forecast
    to advance into CO while an embedded vorticity maximum pivots
    through the basal portion of the low into the southern Rockies and
    adjacent High Plains by Wednesday evening. Modest height falls and strengthening midlevel flow will precede that disturbance, spreading
    into the southern and central High Plains Wednesday afternoon and
    evening. At the surface, a cold front will settle south through the Mid-Atlantic and OH Valley. The position of the front over the
    central and southern Plains will likely be modulated by ongoing
    showers and thunderstorms Wednesday morning.


    ...Central and Southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau...

    As mentioned above, considerable shower and thunderstorm activity is
    expected to be ongoing at 12z Wednesday along and south of the
    synoptic front. The presence of a seasonably moist and minimally
    capped warm sector will likely allow thunderstorms to continue
    through the forecast period, especially as forcing for ascent
    increases Wednesday afternoon into evening. Corridors of moderate
    instability appear possible by afternoon to the south of any more
    persistent clouds and precipitation with associated outflow
    boundaries potentially serving as foci for strong to potentially
    severe storm development during the afternoon and evening.

    Latest model guidance suggests that the strongest vertical shear may
    reside across a convectively overturned air mass closer to the
    synoptic front with decreasing shear magnitudes with southward
    extent where greater instability is more probable. Given these
    potential issues/uncertainties, only level-1/Marginal Risk
    probabilities will be included in this forecast.


    ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...

    Convective evolution on this segment of the cold front remains more
    uncertain due to the absence of any appreciable forcing mechanisms
    in 00Z model data. Nonetheless, a moist boundary layer will reside
    to the south of the front, supporting pockets of moderate
    instability in areas that experience stronger daytime heating. A
    strong storm or two appears possible along the front during the
    afternoon and evening hours with a risk for locally gusty winds. The
    area will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for the possible
    inclusion of severe weather probabilities.

    ..Mead.. 10/12/2026

    $$
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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 12 19:06:16 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 121905
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 121904

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0204 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

    Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
    southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau Wednesday afternoon and
    evening.

    ...Southern Plains to the Ozark Plateau...

    Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will persist across the
    region as an upper low develops east/northeast from the Southwest to
    the central High Plains on Wednesday. Surface high pressure is
    forecast to build eastward from the northern Plains to the Great
    Lakes as a surface cold front sags southward from the Ohio Valley
    into the southern Plains. Ahead of this boundary, rich boundary
    layer moisture will be in place, characterized by surface dewpoint
    in the mid 60s to mid 70s F. Showers and thunderstorms will likely
    be ongoing Wednesday morning in the vicinity of the surface front,
    and some downstream cloudiness will likely limit stronger heating
    across portions of the warm sector. Nevertheless, pockets of
    moderate instability are expected to develop from west TX toward the
    Ozark Plateau. As vertical shear and large-scale ascent increase
    during the afternoon, isolated strong to severe storms may develop
    within these pockets of stronger heating and destabilization as the
    surface front sags southward.

    ...Ohio Valley...

    A moist airmass will be in place ahead of a southward-sagging cold
    front. Stronger vertical shear and any appreciable large-scale
    forcing will remain displaced from the warm sector across the Lower
    OH Valley. Modest destabilization will support widely scattered
    thunderstorm develop from the Mid-South into southern OH and parts
    of KY through early evening. However, severe potential is more
    uncertain, compared to portions of the Plains/Ozarks, with northeast
    extent along the surface boundary given poor lapse rates, weaker
    vertical shear and nebulous large-scale ascent.

    ..Leitman.. 10/12/2026

    $$
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 13 08:03:22 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 130709
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 130708

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0208 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

    Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
    THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe storms appear possible over portions of the mid-
    Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon through night.

    ...Synopsis...

    A short-wave trough over SK/MB Thursday morning is forecast to
    undergo considerable amplification while translating into the Great
    Lakes late Thursday night/early Friday. Ahead of that feature, an
    upper low will weaken into an increasingly sheared open wave while
    accelerating from the central High Plains into the Midwest. At the
    surface, an area of low pressure is expected to develop along a poleward-advancing warm front from central or eastern KS through the
    mid-MS and OH Valleys to the lower Great Lakes. Meanwhile a trailing
    cold front will surge south through much of the southern Plains and
    into the lower-MS Valley.


    ...Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys...

    Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12Z Thursday from
    portions of the central Plains into the mid-MS Valley within a zone
    of warm-air and moisture advection preceding the surface low. A
    subset of the early-day storms may persist through the day with
    associated cloud cover limiting daytime heating and resultant air
    mass destabilization in those areas. Where cloud breaks can occur,
    stronger diabatic heating coupled with boundary-layer dewpoints in
    the low to mid 70s may contribute to a corridor of moderate
    instability by afternoon, which would become a preferred zone of
    diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development.

    Both vertical shear and forcing for ascent are forecast to steadily
    strengthen from Thursday afternoon through night, leading to the
    potential for a fast-moving complex of storms to traverse the region
    with an associated risk for locally damaging wind gusts.

    ..Mead.. 10/13/2026

    $$
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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 13 19:31:44 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 131931
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 131930

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0230 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

    Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
    OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe storms are possible over portions of the mid-
    Mississippi Valley and Midwest Thursday afternoon and evening.

    ...Mid MS Valley/Midwest...
    The upper low ejecting over the central Plains is forecast to weaken
    to a positive-tilt open wave as it continues eastward and merges
    with a northern stream trough from southern Canada late Thursday.
    The lee low over KS will continue eastward and strengthen as a
    diffuse warm front lifts northward across the Mid MS and lower OH
    Valleys. A cold front will trail the low, sweeping south and east
    from the MO valley into the southern Plains.

    Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing early
    Thursday ahead of the low within a zone of low-level warm air
    advection from the central Plains into the mid-MS Valley. A narrow
    plume of upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be advected
    northeastward ahead of this activity across eastern IA/MO into
    western IL. Modest clearing/heating of the air mass should support
    weak destabilization with MLCAPE of 500-750 J/kg. This will allow
    for intensification of the storms/new development through the
    afternoon. Increasing ascent/vertical shear (EBWD 45-60 kt) will
    support the potential for one or more organized clusters of storms
    capable of damaging wind gusts through Thursday evening.

    Farther southwest across OK/TX, a broken band of showers and storms
    may still be ongoing ahead of the surging cold front Thursday
    morning. Low-level flow should quickly veer as the front accelerates
    favoring undercutting. Poor lapse rates, multiple rounds of prior
    precipitation and rapidly decreasing surface moisture suggest only
    weak buoyancy will be present. This should limit severe potential,
    though a stray severe gust cannot be completely ruled out.

    ..Lyons.. 10/13/2026

    $$
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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 14 07:19:20 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 140719
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 140718

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0218 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

    Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
    OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the
    Mid-Atlantic Friday afternoon and evening.

    ...Synopsis...

    An intense trough and associated 90-100 kt midlevel jet are expected
    to progress from the Great Lakes and mid-MS Valley Friday morning to
    the Appalachians by late Friday night/early Saturday. At the
    surface, an area of low pressure will develop from the lower Great
    Lakes to the Gulf of St. Lawrence while a trailing cold front
    advances through New England, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Southeast,
    excluding central/south FL.


    ...Mid-Atlantic...

    Early-day showers and thunderstorms appear probable across portions
    of the region, especially north of the Mason-Dixon line. Clouds and
    areas of precipitation may linger into the afternoon at some
    locations, but where stronger heating can occur, the presence of
    boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s to around 70 F is expected to
    yield at least marginal instability within the warm sector. That air
    mass destabilization will coincide with increasing height falls
    aloft, likely yielding an uptick in storm coverage and intensity
    through the afternoon along and ahead of the cold front. The
    presence of a strongly sheared environment will be supportive of
    organized storm modes with an associated risk for isolated damaging
    wind gusts into the evening.

    ..Mead.. 10/14/2026

    $$
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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 14 19:08:42 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 141908
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 141907

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0207 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

    Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the
    Mid-Atlantic Friday afternoon and evening.

    ...Mid-Atlantic...

    A strong upper trough over the Upper Great Lakes and Mid-MS Valley
    early Friday will shift east through the period, becoming oriented
    over the Lower Great Lakes to Southeast by Saturday morning. Strong
    deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with this system will
    overspread much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic as a surface cold
    front develops eastward. While a seasonally moist airmass will be in
    place ahead of the front, possibly early day showers, cloud cover,
    and poor lapse rates will limit destabilization. Where stronger
    heating can occur, a narrow corridor of 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE may
    develop (most likely across the Mid-Atlantic). Thunderstorm activity
    will increase ahead of the cold front by early afternoon and shift
    east through the evening. Strong deep-layer flow will promote some
    storm organization, but a more robust severe risk will be tempered
    by the marginal thermodynamic environment. Still, given the
    strengthen of deep-layer flow, isolated strong wind gusts are
    possible during the afternoon into early evening within the corridor
    of modest destabilization.

    ..Leitman.. 10/14/2026

    $$
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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 15 07:10:26 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 150710
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 150709

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0209 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

    Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    No severe weather is expected Saturday or Saturday night.

    ...Discussion...

    An initial, full-latitude trough over the eastern CONUS is forecast
    to fracture into a more progressive polar air stream over the
    Northeast and a cut-off low along the Carolina Coast. At the
    surface, a cold front will move through the FL Peninsula, while an
    expansive ridge of high pressure stretches from the southern Plains
    into the Northeast.

    A moist and moderately unstable air mass is expected to develop
    ahead of the front in FL by afternoon, contributing to diurnally
    enhanced thunderstorm development. While locally gusty winds are
    possible with the strongest storms, poor midlevel lapse rates and
    displacement of stronger vertical shear to the north of the surface
    warm sector are expected to limit severe weather potential.

    Elsewhere, an upper low will approach the southern CA and northern
    Baja Coasts with a few elevated thunderstorms possible over the
    lower Colorado Valley within a zone of midlevel moistening and
    ascent downstream from that feature.

    ..Mead.. 10/15/2026

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 15 19:06:50 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 151905
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 151904

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0204 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

    Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    No severe weather is expected Saturday or Saturday night.

    ...Synopsis...
    An upper trough will eject into the Atlantic while an upper ridge
    and accompanying surface high pressure/anticyclone overspreads most
    of the CONUS on Saturday. Given the stability and subsidence
    accompanying the broad surface anticyclone, thunderstorm development
    should be limited across most of the CONUS. One exception would be
    the central and southern FL Peninsula, where isolated thunderstorms
    may accompany a sweeping surface cold front. The other exception is
    the lower Colorado River Basin, where scant buoyancy, driven by
    modestly cooler temperatures aloft, will accompany an approaching
    mid-level impulse, fostering the potential for sparse lightning
    flashes.

    ..Squitieri.. 10/15/2026

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 16 06:50:34 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 160650
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 160649

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0149 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

    Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms are not expected anywhere across the Contiguous
    United States on Sunday.

    ...Synopsis...
    Upper ridging will prevail across the central CONUS as a weak 500 mb
    cutoff low meanders off of the East Coast and broad, low-amplitude
    upper troughing dominates the Interior West on Sunday. A surface
    anticyclone will overspread the CONUS east of the MS River while
    surface troughing occurs across the Great Plains. Despite this
    surface troughing, medium-range guidance shows moist trajectories
    across the Gulf oriented away from the U.S. shoreline, suggesting
    that a stable airmass will remain over the CONUS. Therefore,
    thunderstorm potential should be hindered over most locales. The one
    exception may be southern FL into the Keys, where lingering
    low-level moisture in a post-cold-frontal airmass may support
    isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon.

    ..Squitieri.. 10/16/2026

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 16 19:24:06 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 161923
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 161922

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0222 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

    Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday.

    ...Synopsis...
    A front will stall in the vicinity of south FL and provide a focus
    for thunderstorm development in a moist environment with PW values
    in excess of 2 inches. Across AZ/NM, a midlevel trough will eject northeastward in advance of height falls over the Pacific Northwest
    coast late in the period. Midlevel lapse rates, moisture and ascent
    could be sufficiently deep for charge separation and isolated
    lightning flashes with weak midlevel convection.

    ..Thompson.. 10/16/2026

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 17 07:17:16 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 170716
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 170716

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0216 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

    Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

    ...Synopsis...
    A mid-level cut-off low will continue to meander off of the Atlantic
    Coast while an upper trough deepens over the Interior West and an
    upper ridge remains in place over the central U.S. on Monday. A cool
    and/or stable low-level airmass will remain in place over most of
    the U.S., limiting thunderstorm development. However, the
    amplification of the western upper trough will promote low-level
    moisture return beneath cooling temperatures aloft over the Desert
    Southwest, increasing the chance for thunderstorms in this area. A
    thunderstorm or two may also occur over the far southern FL
    Peninsula, in tandem with the heating of some residual low-level
    moisture.

    ..Squitieri.. 10/17/2026

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 17 19:11:06 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 171910
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 171909

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0209 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

    Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

    ...Synopsis...
    A weak shortwave trough will slowly move across the Southwest, as a
    larger amplified trough approaches the West Coast overnight.
    Meanwhile, an upper low will linger off the NC coast, with high
    pressure centered over the Great Lakes. Dry offshore flow will
    continue over the Southeast, with stable conditions. A few
    convective showers will be possible near the FL Keys before drying
    from the north.

    Widely scattered thunderstorms may develop over parts of AZ and NM
    as daytime heating steepens lapse rates, and a midlevel moisture
    plume persists. Weak instability with an inversion near 400 mb will
    limit storm strength.

    ..Jewell.. 10/17/2026

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 18 07:31:24 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 180731
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 180729

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0229 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

    Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    No severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday.

    ...Synopsis...
    An upper trough will amplify while progressing into the Interior
    West on Tuesday. As this occurs, deep-layer ascent and cooler
    temperatures aloft will encourage at least isolated thunderstorm
    development over multiple locales. Preceding the main upper trough,
    a 500 mb wind maximum accompanying multiple low-amplitude impulses
    will overspread low-level moisture over the Desert Southwest, as
    well as portions of the Great Basin, resulting in thunderstorms by
    Tuesday afternoon. By later Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
    deep-layer ascent associated with the approach of the primary upper
    trough will overspread parts of CA. Cooler temperatures aloft will
    overspread a marine boundary layer, encouraging lightning flashes
    along the CA shoreline late in the period.

    ..Squitieri.. 10/18/2026

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 18 19:08:54 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 181908
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 181907

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0207 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

    Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    No severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday.

    ...Synopsis...
    A large upper trough is forecast to amplify just off the CA coast,
    with increasing south/southwest winds aloft, as well as cooling
    aloft near the coast overnight. To the east, minor height rises will
    occur over the Plains, while an upper low meanders off the Mid
    Atlantic coast.

    At the surface, high pressure over the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario
    will shift eastward, though the surface ridge will remain entrenched
    into the Southern Plains. This will maintain stable conditions over
    the central and eastern states.

    General thunderstorm chances will be limited to parts of the
    southwestern states in relation to the upper trough. Veering winds
    with height and moderate deep-layer shear will develop over AZ and
    NM as the upper trough amplified. However, forecast soundings show a
    subsidence inversion above 500 mb during the day, which will limit
    storm intensity. Overnight, elevated instability may increase as
    cooling aloft occurs, with isolated storms still possible. Potential
    should generally increase into Wednesday/D4 as the upper trough
    strengthens.

    ..Jewell.. 10/18/2026

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 19 06:53:58 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 190653
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 190652

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0152 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

    Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
    OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA INTO FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe wind/hail and perhaps a brief tornado may occur over
    portions of Arizona into western New Mexico on Wednesday.

    ...Synopsis...
    An upper trough will continue to deepen while traversing the
    Interior West on Wednesday, provoking a strong low-level mass
    response across the Desert Southwest and Rockies into the High
    Plains. Adequate low-level moisture will stream northward across CA
    and the Interior West, beneath strong, nearly unidirectional
    southwesterly flow aloft. At least scattered thunderstorms are
    anticipated across much of the CONUS west of the Rockies. However,
    the richest low-level moisture and associated buoyancy will reside
    in the Lower Colorado River Basin, where an isolated severe threat
    will exist.

    ...Lower Colorado River Basin...
    Across the Lower Colorado River Basin, low to mid 50s F surface
    dewpoints will advect northward beneath 6.5+ C/km mid-level lapse
    rates and a 50-80 kt 500 mb jet streak. 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE may
    manifest amid large and elongated hodographs. These conditions would
    support multicells and perhaps a few supercell structures with an
    attendant isolated severe wind/hail threat and perhaps a brief
    tornado, warranting the introduction of Category 1/Marginal Risk
    probabilities this outlook.

    ...Central California Valley Region...
    On Wednesday afternoon, a 70+ kt southerly 500 mb jet, as well as 7+
    C/km mid-level lapse rates, will overspread central and southern CA
    as the upper trough overspreads the San Joaquin Valley. The strong,
    nearly unidirectional flow will yield slightly curved, but very
    elongated hodographs. Such conditions would typically favor the
    development of low-topped supercells. However, surface
    temperatures/dewpoints in the upper 50s/mid 40s F may limit buoyancy considerably, precluding severe probabilities this outlook.

    ..Squitieri.. 10/19/2026

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 19 19:26:02 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 191925
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 191924

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0224 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

    Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
    ARIZONA...FAR SOUTHERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe hail, wind and perhaps a brief tornado may occur
    over portions of Arizona, southern Utah and western New Mexico on
    Wednesday.

    ...Discussion...
    An upper low will slowly approach CA Wednesday, with strong
    southwest winds aloft overspreading much of the Great Basin, Lower
    CO River Valley, AZ and UT. A surface trough will develop during the
    day from southern CA/southwest AZ into central NV, with gusty south
    to southeast surface winds aiding boundary-layer mixing, as well as
    moisture advection across AZ and into southern UT.

    Scattered showers and storms may be ongoing over northern AZ
    Wednesday morning, aided by upslope winds. Further destabilization
    is likely during the day, with expanding storm coverage overall.
    Favorable deep-layer shear over 50 kt with elongated hodographs will
    favor a few supercells producing hail. A tornado or two may occur
    especially over the elevated terrain where LCL heights will be
    lower.

    Instability and placement/timing of the greatest threat area is a
    bit uncertain, but increased severe probabilities may occur in later
    updates as the event nears.

    ..Jewell.. 10/19/2026

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 20 07:31:36 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 200731
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 200730

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0230 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

    Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
    DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN...

    ...SUMMARY...
    At least isolated severe wind/hail producing storms are possible
    across portions of the Great Basin into the Desert Southwest on
    Thursday.

    ...Synopsis...
    A mid-level longwave trough will overspread the CONUS west of the
    Rockies on Thursday, resulting in the continued northward advection
    of a moist, marginally unstable low-level airmass across the Desert
    Southwest into the Great Basin. A broad 50-70 kt mid-level jet will
    overspread these regions during the day, resulting in strong
    vertical wind shear, that coupled with the marginal instability will
    yield scattered strong to severe thunderstorms.

    ...Desert Southwest into the Great Basin...
    The aforementioned 50-70 kt southwesterly 500 mb jet streak will
    overspread south-southeasterly low-level flow, resulting in
    elongated hodographs and over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. Though
    widespread clouds may inhibit surface heating to some degree,
    continued low-level moisture advection (e.g. 60+ F surface
    dewpoints) beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates will yield up to
    1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Such conditions will favor multicells and
    supercells capable of producing at least isolated instances of
    severe hail and/or wind and perhaps a tornado. A marginal risk has
    been introduced to address the severe threat. However, if areas of
    locally greater surface heating (i.e. breaks in clouds) become
    evident, then higher severe probabilities may be needed in future
    outlooks.

    ..Squitieri.. 10/20/2026

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 20 19:26:56 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 201926
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 201925

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0225 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

    Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    ARIZONA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    At least isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across the
    Southwest and Four Corners area on Thursday, with the greatest risk
    across parts of Arizona.

    ...Arizona and Desert Southwest/Great Basin...
    A prominent/deep low-latitude upper trough off the coast of
    California will become more northeastward-progressive on Thursday as
    it moves inland toward the Lower Colorado River Valley. While some
    weakening of the deep-layer wind field may occur over time, wind
    profiles will nonetheless remain rather supportive of organized
    storm modes, potentially including some supercells and sustained
    multicells capable of hail and possibly some tornado risk, which may
    primarily focus the first part of the day. These wind profiles with long/semi-straight hodographs will support at least some severe
    potential even if instability is a bit muted by early day cloud
    cover and precipitation. It currently appears that parts of central
    into eastern Arizona will have the most-favorable severe-weather
    ingredients on Thursday, and the longest relative duration thereof,
    hence a categorical Slight Risk upgrade.

    ..Guyer.. 10/20/2026

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 21 07:24:40 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 210724
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 210723

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0223 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

    Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
    CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
    central into southern New Mexico on Friday.

    ...Synopsis...
    A broad longwave upper trough will impinge on the Rockies on Friday,
    supporting strong surface lee troughing along the High Plains.
    Continued northward advecting low-level moisture and deep-layer
    ascent accompanying the broad upper trough will support isolated to
    scattered thunderstorms all along the Rockies to the northern
    Plains. Across portions of the southern Rockies, locally richer
    moisture and associated instability, beneath stronger flow aloft,
    will support a risk for isolated severe thunderstorms.

    ...Portions of central into southern New Mexico...
    An embedded mid-level impulse and accompanying 50+ kt mid-level
    southwesterly speed max will graze the southern Rockies during by
    afternoon. By this time, surface heating of a low-level airmass
    comprising upper 50s F dewpoints and overspread by 7.5+ C/km
    mid-level lapse rates will yield over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE in spots.
    Scattered thunderstorms should initiate by afternoon, amid veering
    and strengthening flow with height. Forecast soundings show modest
    low-level hodograph curvature and up to 40 kts of effective bulk
    shear. This shear, along with the aforementioned buoyancy, should
    support a mix of multicells and supercells capable of producing
    isolated instances of severe hail and wind.

    ..Squitieri.. 10/21/2026

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 21 19:15:04 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 211914
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 211913

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0213 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

    Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
    central into southern New Mexico on Friday.

    ...New Mexico...
    Steady mid-level height falls are expected across the Southwest in
    the wake of a departing shortwave trough. Low-level moisture will be
    maintained on the western edge of an expansive eastern surface
    ridge. Sufficient surface heating will allow 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE to
    develop during the afternoon (greater values with southward extent).
    Cooling aloft, modest mid-level lapse rates, and moderate deep-layer
    shear will support a mix of multicells and supercells. Large hail
    and isolated severe gusts will be the main concerns within parts of
    central New Mexico.

    ..Wendt.. 10/21/2026

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 22 07:20:06 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 220719
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 220718

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0218 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

    Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL NEW
    MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe wind/hail or a tornado are possible across portions
    of central New Mexico into Far West Texas on Saturday.

    ...Synopsis...
    A mid-level cut-off low will traverse the Desert Southwest and
    impinge on the southern High Plains on Saturday. This will provoke a
    low-level mass response in the form of northwestward moisture
    advection through the day. Cooler temperatures and stronger flow
    aloft associated with the cut-off low will overspread the low-level
    moisture, resulting in enough buoyancy and shear overlap to support
    an isolated severe threat.

    ...Portions of central NM into Far West TX...
    Through the afternoon, 40-50 kt south-southwesterly mid-level flow
    and 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates from the approaching cut-off low
    will overspread mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints and backed
    southeasterly surface winds. With surface heating of the
    aforementioned moist low-level airmass, MLCAPE may exceed 1000 J/kg,
    perhaps locally exceeding 1500 J/kg in spots given locally greater
    insolation. Veering and strengthening flow with height will yield
    modestly curved and elongated hodographs, with over 40 kts of
    effective bulk shear expected. Multicells and perhaps a couple of
    supercells may develop and persist for at least a few hours before
    merging into a loosely organized line of thunderstorms. Storms
    should be at their strongest during their supercell stage, capable
    of producing isolated severe hail/wind and perhaps a tornado.

    ..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)