ACUS11 KWNS 212359
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212359
KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-220200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1703
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Areas affected...southern Kentucky and northern Tennessee

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 508...510...

Valid 212359Z - 220200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 508, 510
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds and perhaps
some large hail are expected to continue this evening across the
discussion area.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends show initially more discrete
supercells gradually merging into a line across south-central KY,
potentially signaling a transition to more of a damaging wind
threat. At least three semi-discrete supercells still precede the
evolving line near the KY/TN border, where the risk for a brief
tornado and/or large hail may persist for the next hour or two.

Latest CAM guidance offers mixed signals on predominant storm mode
later this evening into tonight across TN. Regardless, it does
appear that at least isolated occurrences of damaging wind and large
hail will remain possible.

Extrapolation of current storm motions suggests that the most
intense convection will move south of the Severe Thunderstorm Watch
508 area prior to the 02Z expiration.

..Mead.. 07/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9Q6cexCCJlGIpZZwDQpeYh_RksEbVdFXVH55P4oS0mSlGXWv2T5GfX4FUK7ZKjYzHhs4ldRgDQi-7YfWgosuXrabh_Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 36398860 36728861 37118797 37348642 37358514 37398427
37498347 37348298 36628340 36078552 36098799 36098847
36398860

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)