ACUS11 KWNS 212227
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212227
VAZ000-220000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1700
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0527 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Virginia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 509...

Valid 212227Z - 220000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 509
continues.

SUMMARY...A locally favorable corridor for damaging wind gusts and
possibly a brief tornado is evident in southeastern Virginia for the
next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Along the southern edge of ongoing convection, a
surface-based thunderstorm is evolving along an east/west-oriented
differential heating zone in southeastern VA. Ahead of this
activity, a warm/moist PBL (middle 70s dewpoints) is contributing to
moderate surface-based buoyancy. This, combined with around 40 kt of
0-6 km shear and a clockwise-curved low-level hodograph (sampled by
the AKQ VWP), is yielding a locally favorable corridor for organized
clusters and supercell structures. The primary concern continues to
be damaging wind gusts, though a brief tornado cannot be ruled out
given the aforementioned low-level shear.

..Weinman.. 07/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!99j20g_5DBMKS6AF405fdbttJNXvY1IydORFMrdCepyWHTNlNKWtqsW1bTLc6xK9IfAYLbrUxgvGijzO2-QSKZTOH7o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...

LAT...LON 36617670 36787735 37037759 37307743 37367725 37277670
36837592 36607608 36617670

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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