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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1696

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Jul 21 20:24:44 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 212024
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 212023
    COZ000-UTZ000-WYZ000-NVZ000-212230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1696
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0323 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

    Areas affected...portions of the eastern Great Basin

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 212023Z - 212230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered, high-based thunderstorms are expected this
    afternoon and evening across much of the Great Basin. Isolated
    damaging/severe wind gusts may occur with the strongest downdrafts.

    DISCUSSION...18z observed soundings from GJT/SLC depicted dry,
    increasingly well-mixed boundary layer profiles underlying steep
    mid-level lapse rates. Amid enhanced mid-level moisture and ahead of
    a weak mid-level perturbation along the western periphery of an
    upper-level ridge, convective coverage is forecast to increase
    through the afternoon as convective temperatures are breached.
    Inverted-v thermodynamic profiles with LCLs of 2.5-3.0+ km will
    promote efficient evaporative cooling and the potential for isolated damaging/severe wind gusts with downdrafts. The best potential for
    this risk may manifest from southeastern Utah/far western Colorado
    into central Utah where marginally stronger low-to-mid level flow
    (20-25 kts sampled by the GJX/ICX VWPs) and effective shear (20-25
    kts per latest objective analysis) may promote a loosely organized
    convective cluster or two. The threat for damaging/severe wind gusts
    is forecast to remain too isolated to warrant watch issuance at this
    time, however.

    ..Chalmers/Mosier.. 07/21/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5sYNi9Dwfa6kWmHGfkf5PO0n6ALW1nKvaJPF6dEZYdRSolOFgDi4fx0wlNi96RG_lkQXnf-XxfvpIjPNbnaeVfMzBIE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...LKN...

    LAT...LON 37651219 38241325 39261416 40481446 41131416 41611339
    41561219 41111100 40631010 40130941 39460876 38790857
    37900872 37250932 37091006 37111048 37251135 37651219

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)