ACUS11 KWNS 212016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212016
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-212145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1695
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0316 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Areas affected...northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania and
western New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 212016Z - 212145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon and
evening.

DISCUSSION...Storms across southern Ontario will move eastward this
afternoon toward western New York this evening. This area has seen
cloud cover for most of the day, but as clouds are clearing, the
environment is destabilizing rapidly from northeast Ohio into
northwest Pennsylvania. It is unclear how far northeast the greater
instability (1500+ J/kg MLCAPE) will extend ahead of the ongoing
activity. However, if it can sufficiently destabilize, there may be
some severe weather threat this evening across western New York and
perhaps into northern Ohio with any additional development which may
occur along the cold front.

..Bentley/Mosier.. 07/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!40_nv3g2BR5GP3EsG5s4zHzuLegj662DNBwjZBpC_VNHBLSF85Z5reNzaMEjjzXtuz9XLsRUNbUAXvzMRZI9jwaB91E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 40798318 41608221 42478071 43437878 43507801 42927799
42177845 41567906 40798015 40798318

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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