ACUS11 KWNS 211941
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211940
NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-212115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1694
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Areas affected...eastern Pennsylvania...New Jersey...southeast New
York

Concerning...Tornado Watch 507...

Valid 211940Z - 212115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 507 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will continue through the
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...In the near term the greatest tornado threat will be
across northeast New Jersey into southeast New York where a
supercell along a warm front has continued to exhibit low-level
rotation with several brief tornado reports. The downstream
environment remains favorable and should maintain some damaging
wind/tornado threat for the next 1 to 2 hours.

Elsewhere, mid/upper level cloud cover has slowed heating and thus
storm coverage has remained somewhat muted. However, the next round
of storm development has begun across southeast Pennsylvania. Given
continued filtered heating and increasing ascent through the day,
expect additional storm development through the afternoon with a
primary threat for damaging wind gusts.

..Bentley.. 07/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9vPrjYs6JVjWs-d7Xicb853XzuNxeP0c7F-Y4xR6S5JYPxz5DBDx5Y5vWuSdPqHYgdeQc2P420RmBFYg4JsIYCYcRak$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 39817737 40687656 41407541 41777387 41627304 41197274
40807290 40407341 39657379 38997444 38697498 39067601
39817737

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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