ACUS11 KWNS 211834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211833
WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-211930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1692
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Areas affected...portions of West Virginia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 506...

Valid 211833Z - 211930Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 506
continues.

SUMMARY...A locally greater risk for all severe hazards is likely to
accompany two discrete/semi-discrete supercells currently located
across portions of West Virginia over the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KRLX depicts a semi-discrete
supercell entering Lewis County, West Virginia, with a separate,
discrete supercell noted near the Ohio River in far western West
Virginia. Uncertainty remains as to how long these storms will be
relatively discrete and if they will maintain their intensity as
available buoyancy modestly decreases with eastward extent. However,
given that these cells remain relatively discrete within a favorable thermodynamic/kinematic environment (40+ kts of effective shear and
2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE indicated by latest mesoanalysis and 100-125
m2/s2 0-1 km SRH sampled by the RLX VWP), a locally greater severe
risk is likely to exist for at least another hour in association
with these supercells.

..Chalmers.. 07/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8H3c2b7tQE0w5rH0jwFEil6KfiBFV-Vlc1z9qtr6KoZdCspFfZS_nyvYyAdtwxhSHpK8p0yhIkcRmVZ0pVQKgYyb3w8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...RLX...

LAT...LON 38588234 38838191 38858183 39088077 39098028 39057989
38997959 38907945 38807927 38717922 38537922 38447933
38367971 38228025 38018109 37928145 37988182 38088215
38258241 38438242 38588234

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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