ACUS11 KWNS 211724
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211723
NYZ000-CTZ000-MAZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-211930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1690
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 211723Z - 211930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing storm coverage is expected through the
afternoon and will necessitate a watch.

DISCUSSION...Recent composite radar indicates increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage across eastern Pennsylvania on the leading
edge of mid 70s dewpoints as they advect northward. Most of this
activity is moving away from the greater moisture/instability, but
continued northward destabilization is anticipated. In addition,
broken cloud cover across southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey will
result in greater instability within this zone. The leading edge of
a 50 knot mid-level jet (centered around 5-6km) has been sampled by
the CCX VWP within the last half an hour. As this overspreads the
warm sector, shear will be in place for storm organization,
including supercells. Damaging winds will be the primary threat, but
some large hail and a few tornadoes will also be possible.

The greatest threat will be across southeast Pennsylvania and New
Jersey, where the greater instability is in place. However, as the
warm front lifts northeastward, the threat could extend into
southeast New York and Connecticut this afternoon.

..Bentley/Mosier.. 07/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_y8P3Ue2U2emDz21fBA6xNVZ_plJ0flIIWLcb13Bulq50jQwP9-sH6vnqarnPh1bBHjC1TSIwbhuGNBTpPkkD95pCcg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 39187437 38877495 39457648 39867689 41097690 42277653
42657593 42727456 42487358 42037309 41257279 40597287
40417378 39187437

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)