ACUS11 KWNS 211435
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211435
NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-211600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1687
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0935 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Areas affected...northern New Jersey into southeast New York and
southwest Connecticut

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 211435Z - 211600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A localized severe weather threat is expected this morning
across northeast New Jersey, southeast New York, and southwest
Connecticut.

DISCUSSION...A supercell has developed along a warm front in
northern New Jersey this morning. This supercell should continue
east along the warm front through the morning with some large hail
and damaging wind threat. In addition, stronger southeasterly flow
off the Atlantic may lead to some greater low-level shear and
tornado potential, especially right along the warm front. Therefore,
some tornado threat may also exist with this cell as it continues
east. The overall threat is somewhat muted at this time by the
relatively weak instability, but mid 70s dewpoints are advecting
northeastward quickly and will continue to destabilize the airmass
south of this front. Therefore, this cell and any additional cells
which develop along the front will be monitored closely this
morning, but the limited instability should mitigate the need for a
watch.

..Bentley/Mosier.. 07/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_9PsP1VWOl8zJCQNdcS1vtkg6DCA1vpZjYGEkDsD3Rf5_PTxa1OepT1MmGuL63_5lM8DNHPl4psq00TPWNoyTCFkpGA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...

LAT...LON 41247344 41147296 40957293 40787310 40717364 40747428
41037426 41207413 41247344

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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