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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1682

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Jul 21 01:05:06 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 210104
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 210104
    MIZ000-WIZ000-210230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1682
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0804 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

    Areas affected...northeast Wisconsin into the central U.P. of
    Michigan

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 501...

    Valid 210104Z - 210230Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 501 continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for a couple tornadoes and large hail continues
    across the watch area.

    DISCUSSION...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing
    as of 01Z with recent funnel cloud reports with discrete storms over
    Marathon County, WI. The 00Z Green Bay soundings sampled a steep
    lapse rate and moderately unstable air mass with MLCAPE in excess of
    1500 J/kg. However, some degree of capping was observed in the
    800-700 mb layer, which may be inhibiting storms from fully
    realizing the available instability. Latest objective fields suggest
    that 0-3 km CAPE may be larger in the vicinity of the front (and
    recent funnel cloud reports), where low-level parcel accelerations
    may be stronger.

    Per the Green Bay observed sounding and current VWP, vertical shear
    remains quite favorable for supercell modes with an attendant large
    hail and tornado risk. Despite modestly strong low-level
    storm-relative inflow, the spatial dimensions of the current storms
    are small, suggesting that perhaps the aforementioned capping may be
    diluting parcel buoyancy. As such, the extent of the tornado threat
    remains uncertain. Large hail will also remain possible with the
    strongest storms.

    ..Mead.. 07/21/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-4ZUCMi734hfzyRBRuBkdC-AktmuaNnMN7Nn9PUmbJvKKA9DE3_qymnDUWuR6PLgZPeX8IWbZcJxKN9X-1TFT5oLyY8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...

    LAT...LON 44429019 45049000 45598912 45968772 46108722 46228632
    45738643 45098712 44328763 44328846 44429019

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)