ACUS11 KWNS 210021
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210020
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-210215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1681
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0720 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Areas affected...southwest Wisconsin...far southeast Minnesota...and
northeast Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 210020Z - 210215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storm development south of Tornado Watch 501 is appearing
less likely. Based on current observations, an additional watch is
not expected.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, visible satellite and radar data
have shown several attempts at storm initiation along a weakly
convergent surface front. Short parcel residence time within the
frontal zone coupled with a warm nose in the 700-800 mb layer, per
00Z MPX sounding, appears to limiting storm development. In
addition, convectively processed air spreading north into the area
from ongoing storms across IA is resulting in an increasingly narrow
warm sector ahead of the front. Given these observations and the
absence of storms in latest CAM guidance, an additional watch is not
currently expected to the south of Tornado Watch 501.

..Mead.. 07/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!66ruOfFEAUDAKC3b9BPMm6j_pQBtXNth-TpcViDbTx5Zfn3gBJ_0wxreWprHpSvQR_XxY0wvWd9HTHHS3hcmlqgP2RY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON 43699265 44399165 44619095 44369048 43878951 43398895
42488974 42889202 43699265

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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