1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1668

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Jul 20 02:13:30 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 200213
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 200212
    SDZ000-NDZ000-200345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1668
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0912 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

    Areas affected...south-central/southeast ND and
    north-central/northeast SD

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499...

    Valid 200212Z - 200345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts will continue spreading
    eastward across parts of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499. Some severe
    risk may extend eastward out of the watch, and convective trends are
    being monitored.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KBIS indicates some signs of
    a consolidating cold pool as storms continue spreading eastward
    across south-central ND and north-central SD. In the near-term,
    isolated severe hail and locally damaging gusts are the primary
    concerns with an evolving cluster and splitting cells. The ABR 00Z
    sounding sampled steep midlevel lapse rates atop a warm and very
    moist PBL (middle 70s dewpoints), resulting in a strongly unstable
    downstream air mass. This, combined with around 50 kt of effective
    shear oriented perpendicular to the evolving gust front, could
    support a continued risk of severe wind gusts east of Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch 499. However, some lingering low-level inhibition
    in the ABR sounding and a gradual increase in nocturnal static
    stability may temper the overall risk. Current thinking is that a
    downstream watch will not be needed, though convective trends are
    being monitored.

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/20/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-ufpGLlp175g_BRSYfKaDPe5ggKls-nyfroBqfnvW-FK6cD1xAekpC9RU6zSWhcnpa8AtLaSt_PsbKz5JFSA4GkOYCI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

    LAT...LON 46709937 46839887 46819800 46649736 46369709 45829709
    45289727 44969780 44849852 44899950 45079994 45270025
    45580025 46709937

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)