ACUS11 KWNS 200008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200008
SDZ000-NEZ000-200215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1667
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0708 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Areas affected...Parts of south-central SD into
north-central/northeast NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 200008Z - 200215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A locally favorable corridor for a few severe wind gusts
is evident from south-central South Dakota into north-central and
northeast Nebraska for the next couple of hours. The severe risk is
expected to remain too localized for a watch.

DISCUSSION...A northeast/southwest-oriented cluster of thunderstorms
is evolving along a surface wind shift in south-central SD.
Downstream of these storms, temperatures have warmed into the
middle/upper 90s amid middle/upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints --
yielding moderate surface-based buoyancy. Over the next couple of
hours, thunderstorms will track southeastward along the buoyancy
gradient amid 30-40 kt of northwesterly deep-layer shear. This could
support a loosely organized cluster of thunderstorms capable of
producing a few severe wind gusts. The overall severe risk is
expected to remain sufficiently localized to preclude a watch
issuance.

..Weinman/Hart.. 07/20/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8l5xDJ6OMO2AHfwiZ2uvnI0q9Q2EZ8KDgM1Su8bT3rxlevyRDHI9eAU4djPXZLGj4YpS9ZFh0_mSwWw4Kx9TfFfWXa4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 42519959 42800013 43170026 43580021 43839989 43919940
43849879 43479816 42889800 42459841 42399895 42519959

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
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