ACUS11 KWNS 192349
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192348
NDZ000-SDZ000-200145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1666
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Areas affected...Parts of central ND into north-central SD

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499...

Valid 192348Z - 200145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts and large hail will continue
to increase in coverage over the next couple of hours -- within
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499.

DISCUSSION...Over the last 30 minutes or so, an increase in
thunderstorm intensity and coverage has begun, as storms impinge on
a plume of lower 70s dewpoints and at least 2000 J/kg MLCAPE per
modified 18Z BIS sounding and the latest HRRR SFCOA data. As storms
continue spreading/developing eastward, increasing buoyancy will
support further intensification of ongoing storms. The BIS VWP is
sampling a long/straight hodograph (40-50 kt of 0-6 km shear), which
will continue to promote splitting supercells capable of producing
severe wind gusts and large hail. Resultant storm mergers and
increasingly robust outflow will favor a gradual increase in both
the coverage and intensity of severe wind gusts over the next couple
of hours.

..Weinman.. 07/19/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_TbNa9ZY5cNxw7BnBSg1ZjqhZ64zJtVqeiaYSBW3moLGP2p8E_uGsnpQrnwhzNeetdKmWnqT6eKTcTGYoHpdyfNgQbc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON 47139897 46579914 46179935 45689978 45210059 45150109
45200168 45470199 45740204 46370176 47650092 47900030
47899964 47699913 47139897

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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