ACUS11 KWNS 192143
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192142
MTZ000-WYZ000-200015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1664
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0442 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Areas affected...Parts of south-central and southeast MT into
north-central and northeast WY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 192142Z - 200015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few locally severe wind gusts will be possible with
high-based thunderstorms over the next few hours (through around
01Z). The localized nature of the threat should preclude the need
for a watch.

DISCUSSION...Potentially aided by a passing midlevel westerly jet
steak across northern/central MT (well sampled by the BLX VWP),
isolated high-based thunderstorms are evolving over the higher
terrain of north-central WY into south-central MT this afternoon.
Despite the presence of weak buoyancy, these storms will be moving
through an area of steep low/midlevel lapse rates (around 50 deg
T/Td spreads). This, combined with a long/straight hodograph (around
30-40 kt of effective shear), will support a couple loosely
organized clusters capable of producing severe wind gusts through
around 01Z. If a more-organized cold pool can evolve, isolated
significant gusts upwards of 75 mph cannot be ruled out. The
severe-wind risk is expected to remain too localized for a watch.

..Weinman/Hart.. 07/19/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!82TEj8xvlE3wJhx0ewce2H1jE7hQBWYV0pqEpVCNEC4RzrsKG3jo8G8VcJyDdMcn96keDsEG7qzVeOHutGzh0b0lRkA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON 44290627 44580761 44930832 45460847 45780829 45940791
45950743 45870653 45640560 45200491 44910477 44550484
44330538 44290627

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
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