ACUS11 KWNS 191620
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191620
NCZ000-VAZ000-191815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1658
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Areas affected...Southern Mid-Atlantic into North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 191620Z - 191815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms this afternoon will be capable of wind
damage. A watch is possible early this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Low to upper 70s F dewpoints are in place from central
Virginia into the Carolinas early this afternoon. Cloud debris in
southern Virginia is slowly eroding and temperatures are generally
in the upper 80s to low 90s F. Between the southward moving cold
front, the Blue Ridge, and differential heating boundaries,
scattered storm development appears likely over the next few hours.
Damaging downburst winds will be possible with this activity as
low-level lapse rates continue to steepen. Morning observed
soundings indicate poor mid-level lapse rates and strong mid-level
flow will diminish with southward extent. Even so, storm coverage
and potential clustering will support enough of a severe threat that
a watch is possible for parts of the region early this afternoon.

..Wendt/Thompson.. 07/19/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-gz67k7h9OlxEZOSDX5k-N1qLEGGml9MGFC28OVc2nJ8jPLLriMgj2wHaU5nkjH9HpCH3NgwbvCO8g3t8PQH4PJHhpw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON 37437761 37367675 36627579 35677568 35377620 35397692
35507987 35728155 36178163 37198025 37248017 37437761

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)