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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1652

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 18 20:40:16 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 182040
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 182039
    NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-182215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1652
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0339 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

    Areas affected...portions of eastern Pennsylvania...central and
    southern New Jersey...eastern Maryland...Delaware

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 495...

    Valid 182039Z - 182215Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 495 continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will continue across the watch area
    and pose a risk for a couple tornadoes and damaging wind gusts.

    DISCUSSION...A composite warm front, reinforced by convective
    outflow, extends from central NJ into east-central PA at 2025z.
    Thunderstorms north of this boundary will likely slow any northward
    progress over the next few hours, with the greatest supercell
    potential along and south of the warm front across eastern MD,
    Delaware, and southern/central NJ. Enhanced low-level shear in the
    vicinity of the warm front remains supportive of low-level rotation
    and attendant tornado risk with any more discrete/persistent storm.
    Strong instability/steep low-level lapse rates across the southern
    portion of the watch will contribute to the continued potential for
    damaging winds, especially as storms merge/evolve into clusters.
    Some tornado risk will exist as storm interactions occur given the
    magnitude of instability.

    ..Bunting.. 07/18/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_T4m1TchsUHa_jMgpsKWPp5tzuxk4ZjlzRCl6_uArBMr58WgZERt-1cUTg3CjM4jHF7hyjU69VTnPd8rQVJejggut-8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 40037590 40347559 40407480 40297410 40187398 39967384
    39757383 39077426 38537468 38427548 38627584 38617619
    38487646 38657689 38987713 39117740 39347757 39507743
    39507696 39657621 40037590


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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)