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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1650

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 18 19:28:48 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 181928
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 181928
    NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-182100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1650
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0228 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

    Areas affected...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 492...494...

    Valid 181928Z - 182100Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 492, 494
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds will continue, particularly
    where surface heating has been greatest. Isolated large hail and
    perhaps a tornado will be possible in western New York with
    convection near the warm front.

    DISCUSSION...Convection within western New York continues to moves
    southeast. Stronger cells in the vicinity of Rochester/Buffalo will
    pose a threat for isolated large hail and damaging winds. The
    tornado threat with these cells is nonzero, but it is conditional on
    airmass recovery from the southwest as these cells are within
    outflow currently. Small linear segments are also evident farther
    southwest within southwestern Ontario. This activity will move
    through Lake Erie and eventually impact northeast Ohio into
    northwestern Pennsylvania. Temperatures along the lake shore are
    nearing 90 F. Wind damage would be possible in these areas over the
    next 1-2 hours.

    ..Wendt.. 07/18/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_GHzACYLkcQezbmUCZtY3Qhl1-rb41OQZFXYQxfdE6W_67iMQadCGlmk6vdNsPgMnk-QljzifCoT1Lr1WjGUMdxxHMk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...DTX...

    LAT...LON 42608335 42858309 42918171 43367897 43127703 42607570
    42257560 42007603 41867816 41438010 41218192 41318298
    41928350 42608335

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)