1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1644

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 18 01:51:46 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 180151
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 180151
    MIZ000-180415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1644
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0851 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

    Areas affected...Northern Lower Michigan

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 180151Z - 180415Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An approaching thunderstorm cluster will pose a risk of
    damaging wind gusts as it moves into northern Lower Michigan over
    the next couple of hours.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KAPX shows a loosely
    organized thunderstorm cluster tracking southeastward from eastern
    Upper MI and northern Lake MI, with additional cells developing
    along the southern and western flanks. Over the next couple of
    hours, this activity should continue tracking southeastward along a
    buoyancy gradient extending into northern Lower MI. Here, the APX
    00Z sounding sampled an elongated hodograph (around 45 kt of
    effective shear) with modest low-level hodograph curvature (210
    m2/s2 effective SRH) and around 800 J/kg MLCAPE. Given the
    established cold pool and continued upscale growth, this downstream
    environment should support the maintenance of this thunderstorm
    cluster into northern Lower MI. The primary concern will be damaging
    wind gusts, though isolated severe hail will also be possible. Given
    the localized nature of the risk, a watch is not expected.

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/18/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!80NxmPySjpvxNd1bfX4Kru29Oq_eMj4DzBd1Sk0pVYjLJ6MA-dji3f358RS8_PsqfIaHTu2rJHmTje1F87zwathn9fw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...APX...

    LAT...LON 45658524 45818502 45848462 45758395 45478353 45178337
    44778358 44608394 44588454 44778513 45288544 45658524

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)