ACUS11 KWNS 162003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162003
MTZ000-162130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1634
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of southwestern into central Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 162003Z - 162130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat may continue to increase through the
afternoon hours. Severe hail may occur with the stronger storms, and
isolated severe gusts are also possible.

DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery and NLDN lightning data
depict convective initiation underway across the northern Rockies,
with MRMS MESH data suggesting that storm cores are already
beginning to produce hail (albeit sub-severe). 19Z mesoanalysis
depict eroding MLCINH, with MLCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg on a
widespread basis given strong surface heating beneath 7.5+ C/km
mid-level lapse rates. RAP forecast soundings also show elongated
hodographs, contributing to 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear.
Therefore, some storms may organize into at least transient
supercells capable of producing severe hail. Given near 30 T/Td
spreads, evaporative cooling may also support a couple of severe
gusts.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 07/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9WIx5MfSDPiYeT75IH9o1xAsYhf8fGmrKkwp8E4aSNo4txWWZ5l3PWJ_ZVVCXnuuUn7LyEY6q1h2qpl761WwUrtH9NA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON 46280950 45440946 45220980 45071075 44901177 44881231
44911284 45851369 47341382 48231361 48331239 47801080
47321011 46280950

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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