ACUS11 KWNS 120022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120022
AZZ000-120215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1595
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0722 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Areas affected...Southern Arizona

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484...

Valid 120022Z - 120215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484
continues.

SUMMARY...Through 02Z, the greatest threat for severe wind gusts is
expected to exist across southern Pinal into eastern and central
parts of Pima County, including the Tucson metropolitan area.

DISCUSSION...Recent trends in radar data show intensifying storms
from southeast through northeast of Tucson within a deeply mixed
boundary layer, characterized by steep low/mid-level lapse rates and
MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg, per latest objective analysis. Current
surface observations immediately downstream from the storms in the
Tucson vicinity indicate west winds, which are 1) enhancing
low-level storm-relative inflow, and 2) bolstering deep-layer shear.


Given the areal increase and recent intensification of storms, the
likelihood for organized cold pool formation appears to be
increasing along with the potential for corridors of severe winds
with gusts of 70-80 mph. Isolated occurrences of marginally severe
hail are also possible.

..Mead.. 07/12/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5fA1g1iNlabjFAta5R5F41gRz1H4shsLutz8FFPKycvjAwIo4QB8QdmvjpjIDijLF-VifqA2BRdwrYlEQrm4_9uZDnM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...

LAT...LON 31931279 32211306 32451268 33011193 33281120 33351060
33320979 32660922 31880917 31420949 31321053 31461143
31841241 31991304 31931279

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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