ACUS11 KWNS 100323
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100323
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-100530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1569
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1023 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Areas affected...Southeast ND into northeast SD and extreme
west-central MN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 476...

Valid 100323Z - 100530Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 476
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind and hail will continue
southeastward through late evening, though an eventual weakening
trend is expected.

DISCUSSION...A persistent cluster of storms with embedded supercell
structures is moving southeastward across southeast ND late this
evening. A few measured severe gusts and reports of wind damage have
recently been noted, while MRMS hail-size estimates continue to
occasionally exceed severe criteria. While a favorable combination
of buoyancy and deep-layer shear is in place downstream of this
cluster, nocturnal cooling and increasing MLCINH is expected to
result in a gradual weakening trend by near/after midnight CDT.
Given the forward-propagating nature of this cluster, some threat
for severe wind and/or hail may eventually move out of WW 476 into
parts of northeast SD and extreme west-central MN. Short-term trends
will continue to be monitored regarding any need for downstream
watch issuance.

..Dean/Thompson.. 07/10/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-eNDxe7A4QJ2zSghVYOXwnFYx5keBYx8QaVIJLycSVr45tK7RO2j9xk8txzQ_d81-ey5m4VsDTwUHqREycXcXoO2PqY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 46800035 47119829 46989763 46759686 46279597 46069576
45479613 45389665 45369811 45489891 45749966 45859985
46000027 46410052 46800035

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)