ACUS11 KWNS 090308
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090308
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-090515-

Mesoscale Discussion 1553
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1008 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...southwest Iowa...and northeast
Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473...

Valid 090308Z - 090515Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will likely continue into the
overnight hours across portions of southeast Nebraska and into
northeast Kansas. Isolated large hail and severe winds will be
possible, but this threat should be sufficiently limited to preclude
downstream watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...An organized convective band with an evident book-end
vortex continues to migrate eastward across the Missouri River into
western IA. Although only sub-severe winds were observed with this
line as it impacted Omaha, NE, KOAX velocity imagery continues to
show pockets of strong/severe winds within the line. However, this
band is beginning to exit the buoyancy gradient and will begin
encountering a more stable air mass as it migrates further into IA.
This should promote steady weakening over the next hour or so.

Further southwest, new updrafts are noted developing just behind an
outflow boundary surging south towards the KS/NE border. Although
the downstream environment is conditionally favorable for organized
convection (MLCAPE remains near 1500 J/kg with around 40 knots of
effective bulk shear), it appears that convection will continue to
be displaced behind the leading edge of the outflow, which will
likely promote additional southward acceleration as the cold pool is convectively reinforced.

Nonetheless, a few stronger convective cores may emerge given
remaining MUCAPE downstream (based on the 00 UTC TOP RAOB) and
recent MRMS VIL trends. This could pose a threat for sporadic large
hail and isolated bursts of severe winds into northeast KS. This
scenario appears to be supported by recent HRRR/RRFS time-lagged
ensemble guidance which depicts a weak, but non-zero, signal for
strong updraft helicity and severe winds. Given the limited
confidence in a more widespread/robust severe threat, downstream
watch issuance is currently not expected.

..Moore.. 07/09/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9qAnRDQqkp7yuTJEXNPsjvwEvue3CTNKsFelJFAp04h8rCwSq9ZVyIIrSls01goCk5w2-2pmncCb0teE32xQmZ9DHlc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON 39849878 40129895 40329891 40529862 40579811 40659769
40879663 41139607 41439584 41689563 41819547 41809516
41679485 41469461 41179453 40729486 40289516 39199591
38949622 38769672 38749721 38839761 38979793 39849878

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)