ACUS11 KWNS 062018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062017
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-062245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1525
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Areas affected...Parts of southern/central AR...northern LA...and
northeast TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 062017Z - 062245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will
gradually increase through the afternoon. Convective trends are
being monitored, and a watch could eventually be warranted.

DISCUSSION...Large-scale forcing for ascent preceding a compact
midlevel low/vort max is aiding in the development of thunderstorms
along a weak surface boundary in northern/central AR, with
additional development within a broad low-level confluence zone
extending from northeast TX into central AR. Within this zone,
strong diurnal heating/destabilization of a moist PBL (lower 70s
dewpoints) beneath relatively steep midlevel lapse rates (sampled by
SHV 18Z sounding) is contributing to around 3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE.
This increasing buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse
rates will be favorable for damaging downbursts with the stronger
storms that evolve. Given weak deep-layer shear, thunderstorms
should generally remain disorganized/outflow dominant. However, the aforementioned buoyancy and focused area of deep-layer ascent could
promote several loosely organized clusters capable of scattered
damaging winds and sporadic severe hail with time.

Convective trends (especially a tendency for clustering) are being
monitored, and a watch could eventually be warranted for parts of
the area.

..Weinman/Hart.. 07/06/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7d6Kg9oTWljR6dExpl5fTqaU1j2N8jJ_oDBOYUbJozJSaIbKX6_17TAKp2Yosycw-gty36ioVUalmrE23rH0C74P96w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON 32039275 31969348 32219477 32459527 32809557 33389551
33719532 34149485 34889418 35389339 35439263 35189192
34669152 33819146 33239150 32369217 32039275

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
SEEN-BY: 19/10 104/119 114/10 120/302 134/100 153/143 148 149 150 151 757 SEEN-BY: 154/10 30 50 700 218/840 220/20 90 221/1 6 360 226/18 20 44 50 301/1 SEEN-BY: 335/364 341/66 342/11 2320/105 107 127 304 3634/12