ACUS11 KWNS 062056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062055=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-062300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1006
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Areas affected...portions of northeastern/east-central New Mexico
into the far western Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 062055Z - 062300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms may bring a risk for isolated
damaging to severe wind gusts and small to marginally severe hail
through this afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...Latest satellite/radar imagery depicts developing
thunderstorms along the southern portions of the southern Sangre de
Cristo Mountains in northeastern New Mexico. Continued diurnal
heating of moist, southerly flow is supporting weak buoyancy
(500-1000 J/kg), with well-mixed boundary layer profiles in place
(steep low-level lapse rates and LCLs around 2000-2500 m per latest
objective analysis). Enhanced northerly mid-level flow (30-40+ kts
sampled at 3 km AGL by the FDX/AMA/LUB VWPs) on the western edge of
a mid-level closed low/MCV is contributing to around 25-30 kts of
effective shear. Coupled with a favorable environment for
evaporative cooling, this may promote modest organization of a
convective cluster along a developing cold pool. Latest guidance
suggests such a cluster will evolve off of the mountains
south-southeastward into east-central New Mexico and perhaps the far
western Texas Panhandle through this afternoon/evening. Should this
scenario occur, the primary threat would be isolated damaging to
potentially severe wind gusts. An instance or two of marginally
severe hail may also be possible, mainly with any more robust,
initially discrete updrafts. Watch issuance is not anticipated at
this time owing to the expected isolated nature of the severe risk.

..Chalmers/Thompson.. 06/06/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7ATA2esxjeqC0kuQMQyzHJKLksQlFgC_I6m0268uWMvWJ44NVKdJ4z3QrGAcm-h9xOrHD9ale= 8M1t51DvVDEh1Wgp3g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 34890505 35260518 35770505 36460463 36670440 36790419
36670384 36270345 35890319 35550303 35170292 34710289
34420307 34240333 34160375 34210426 34410474 34890505=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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