ACUS11 KWNS 061817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061817=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-061945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1002
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Areas affected...portions of the eastern Texas Panhandle into
western and central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 061817Z - 061945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms may pose a low-end risk for
isolated strong to occasionally damaging wind gusts, small hail, and
a landspout or two.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts a surface low west of
the Oklahoma City Metro, downstream of a mid-level closed low/MCV.
More prevalent cloud cover is tempering diurnal
heating/destabilization across portions of this area compared to
areas farther south, but guidance still suggests 1000 to locally
1500 J/kg MLCAPE will be present by peak heating this afternoon.
This is expected to support widely scattered thunderstorm
development this afternoon from the eastern Texas Panhandle into western/central Oklahoma. Deep-layer flow is also weaker across this
region, with effective shear analyzed at 20-25 kts or less. While
this should largely inhibit updraft/storm organization, high PWAT
contents (1.6 inches or greater per latest objective analysis) may
promote occasional strong wind gusts with water-loaded downbursts
and perhaps an instance or two of damaging wind gusts. Enhanced
surface vertical vorticity in the vicinity of the aforementioned
surface low and increasing 0-3 km CAPE through the afternoon will
also foster a risk for a landspout or two. Lastly, small to perhaps
marginally severe hail may accompany the most robust updrafts. Watch
issuance is not expected given the limited magnitude/coverage of the
severe threat.

..Chalmers/Thompson.. 06/06/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5ZMNgrSYKXtqbLX_yNEiPPFcxM2rq_seZKYnY71hT-D6t1HIK04PsL78P88teVwk1-vLDF6e9= 3dVBjplMhGrVziJPro$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 34229963 34069994 33980009 34010031 34180042 34520043
35110039 35870033 36260025 36539997 36719978 36909903
36899821 36689764 36229704 35639668 35149664 34799670
34579696 34479724 34549758 34589798 34559849 34439901
34229963=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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