ACUS11 KWNS 061804
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061803=20
MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-061900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1001
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Areas affected...northeastern Pennsylvania into southeastern New
York

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 061803Z - 061900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms to increase in coverage through the
afternoon with increasing potential for damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase in
coverage through the afternoon across portions of northeastern PA
into southern NY, with potential for ongoing clusters across
northern PA to expand eastward. Recent mesoanalysis shows
temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to 80s with MLCAPE
around 500-1000 J/kg nudging into the region. Warm and unstable
conditions amid steep low-level lapse rates will promote risk for
downward momentum transfer of stronger winds aloft with the
mid-level wave to the north. A watch will likely be needed to
support this potential over the next 1-2 hours.

..Thornton/Thompson.. 06/06/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7v9VhjLj9Sb7KBBiYQZ9p4NzzK-nhdzVHMHu-7pkoxsjch_tAD_qcau12zkW7BiSSmQEQimZ1= FbLI25b-ShLKYrla5c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON 42177670 41677672 41257638 41207622 41157591 41337484
41377399 41557364 42107308 42327298 42787301 42947359
42997422 42727590 42177670=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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