ACUS11 KWNS 061703
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061703=20
PAZ000-MDZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-061830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0999
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Areas affected...western/central Pennsylvania...northern/western
Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 061703Z - 061830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms with potential for damaging winds will
increase in coverage through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of severe thunderstorms continues eastward
this afternoon across Ohio, producing gusts as high as 66 mph.
Further to the northeast, additional thunderstorms are developing
across portions of western PA into southwestern NY. Ahead of this
activity, filtered heating has allowed temperatures to climb into
the 80s with gradual eastward expansion of around 500 J/kg of
MLCAPE. As further heating occurs, guidance suggests around
1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE will be in place through the afternoon with
strengthening mid-level flow aloft overspreading the region and
steepening low level lapse rates. This will promote further
thunderstorm development and potential for downward mixing of higher
momentum air and damaging wind potential. A watch will be needed to
cover this potential soon.

..Thornton/Thompson.. 06/06/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5hPFSozCdMUoAIGHj_w3YhpTZs3ORWBsUwGlkAbH0a79wNXaQSECP9zjrlVgnYVSxQnq1o4nm= SFE2AByZMillSVZtyI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

LAT...LON 42017891 42137816 41787699 41537643 40837628 40127633
39547676 39537742 39497804 39607883 40647926 42017891=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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