ACUS11 KWNS 052347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052346=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-060115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0992
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Areas affected...southern Nebraska...northern Kansas into western
Iowa/Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 275...

Valid 052346Z - 060115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 275
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across WW275. Additional storm
development is underway with an increasing risk for large hail
damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...As of 2340 UTC, evening visible and radar imagery
showed the initial convection at the confluence of the stationary
front and surface trough over far southern NE and northern KS had
dissipated. Additional convective towers were observed rapidly
deepening along the primary synoptic boundary and a more diffuse
secondary zone near the NE/KS border. A very unstable air mass is in
place with SPC mesoanalysis showing upwards of 4000 J/kg of MLCAPE.
This will support rapid thunderstorm development and
intensification, preferentially along these two corridors, this
evening.

Steep mid-level lapse rates and the large buoyancy should support a
risk for large hail (some 2+ inch) and damaging winds with a mixed
mode of supercells and multi cells. While background flow remains
fairly modest (OAX VAD) consolidating outflow should eventually
support the development of one or more eastward propagating clusters
with a risk for damaging winds and hail into parts of MO and IA.

..Lyons.. 06/05/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_jCBLVlxhv-S2o8dDsrGitOmoLqyEgLJMxzzxk2vq9D726cgMeUm0NwqSf9iYRIO8DN0btybg= aRTkxGHlzD2AH3hZTg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON 39719941 40599938 41479846 41659692 41669567 41189480
40619470 40239470 39899504 39819569 39749696 39689817
39689892 39719941=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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