ACUS11 KWNS 051813
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051812=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-051945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0987
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of northeastern South Dakota into central
Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 051812Z - 051945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms developing near the ND/SD/MN
border will bring the potential for damaging wind gusts and large
hail as they progress east-southeastward this afternoon. Trends are
being monitored for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible satellite imagery depicts
increasingly agitated cumulus in close proximity to a weak surface
low analyzed near the ND/SD/MN border, with recent lightning
activity noted with a developing thunderstorm in Wilkin County, MN.
Continued heating of a moist, low-level air mass (dewpoints in the
60s F) is supporting around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE, with further
destabilization likely to support 1500-2000 J/kg by peak heating
this afternoon. Compared to areas farther east, effective shear is
marginally greater across this region, with 30-35 kts analyzed per
latest objective analysis. Modest mid-level lapse rates (6.5-7.0
C/km per latest mesoanalysis) will support some potential for large
hail with initially discrete convection, with steep low-level lapse
rates also promoting a threat for damaging wind gusts.

With time, expectation is for this activity to organize along
developing cold pools into one or more bowing segments/convective
clusters, with some increase in the threat for damaging wind gusts=20
possible. Trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance.

..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/05/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6WDZEhnbdINwHuGazdx9Mo8Uab19XoC9Jq4xb8YH96Fq9YGpMTbg9J9dqUoC7OUuj7mYWMFEd= XelhUl5Jlt45OzJHzs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON 46269414 45699396 45209393 44889401 44629427 44519467
44529548 44669633 44809684 45119736 45379745 45719736
46459664 46849616 46999590 46979528 46809482 46649461
46269414=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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