ACUS11 KWNS 051746
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051745=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-051915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0986
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of central Minnesota into northern
Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 051745Z - 051915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible
through early afternoon. Watch issuance is unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...Aided by modest forcing ahead of a subtle, mid-level
shortwave trough, thunderstorm coverage has increased across
portions of central/east-central Minnesota ahead of a weak cold
front/surface boundary as of early afternoon. While objective
analysis indicates that available buoyancy remains weak (generally
500 to locally 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), continued insolation will support
a destabilizing air mass through the afternoon. Modestly strong
mid-to-upper level flow sampled by the DLH VWP and effective shear
of around 25-30 kts are contributing to modest updraft organization,
with marginal supercell structures noted per recent radar imagery
from KMPX. Despite generally poor mid-level lapse rates sampled by
the 12z MPX observed sounding, a couple of instances of small to
marginally severe hail may be possible over the next 1-2 hours with
this activity. Steepening low-level lapse rates may also promote
some potential for occasional strong to damaging wind gusts,
especially if convection is able to organize into one or more
convective clusters.=20

While the exact evolution of this convective activity remains
somewhat uncertain, latest guidance indicates that this activity may
eventually evolve into one or more convective clusters as it
progresses eastward. Weak effective shear is likely to somewhat
limit convective organization. Thus, watch issuance appears unlikely
at this time. Continued insolation of a moist low-level air mass
will then yield further destabilization and the potential for some
increase in severe potential later this afternoon. Trends will
continue to be monitored.

..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/05/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4hmlGGA4bcP-Q160PDjBSLfkg2-ylmESuLz3ES_emGgHf8PbwcjCl9DMRBKLNjkDMUbOtku_2= ACiJFZHqXiUxjvJoxU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON 45399297 45439357 45489433 45619480 45769492 45949486
46149461 46449373 46619313 46739263 46749191 46739130
46559063 46399037 46209023 45929022 45669036 45569045
45399078 45279128 45329214 45399297=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)