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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0983

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 5 00:32:11 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 050032
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 050031=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-050230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0983
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0731 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

    Areas affected...Parts of SD and extreme northwest NE

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 272...273...

    Valid 050031Z - 050230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 272, 273
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across parts of east-central
    South Dakota, with an increasing threat possible with time into
    south-central South Dakota.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of intense storms has recently developed
    across east-central SD, to the west/north of Huron. This convection
    developed within a low-level confluence zone, within an environment characterized by MLCAPE of near/above 2000 J/kg and increasing
    effective shear in the 30-40 kt range. Large to locally very large
    hail and isolated severe gusts will continue to be a threat with
    these storms through mid evening, and a tornado cannot be ruled out
    given the presence of backed surface winds and modestly enhanced
    effective SRH. To the southwest of this cluster, isolated supercell
    development remains possible through dusk across south-central SD.=20

    Later this evening, outflow associated with convection across
    western SD may begin to intersect richer moisture and stronger
    buoyancy along and north of a surface boundary. This could lead to
    upscale growth and development of a small MCS (as depicted by recent
    HRRR runs), though this evolution is uncertain due to a lack of
    stronger low-level flow. Should such an evolution occur, a greater
    threat for severe gusts could develop across southwest into central
    SD later this evening.

    ..Dean.. 06/05/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-Myn1qBrIYhRSZsiHXj0qSx-rgFM6TfX_Yj3yCm8cdMO-y2WSa0K9ybPRwJzS22rCz5siV5jN= yNq-pcHXU7NyfSvShs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 44219675 43509816 42850071 42850153 42820252 43830286
    44290272 44510152 44580102 44879954 45019781 45049685
    44219675=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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