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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0982

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 4 22:46:40 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 042246
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042246=20
    SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-050015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0982
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0546 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

    Areas affected...Eastern MT...northeast WY...western SD...southwest
    ND

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 272...

    Valid 042246Z - 050015Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 272
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will continue into the early
    evening.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered strong storms are ongoing as of 2230 UTC from
    southeast MT/southwest ND into northeast WY. The environment remains
    generally favorable for organized convection, with MLCAPE of
    near/above 1000 J/kg and effective shear of 40+ kt. A low-amplitude
    midlevel shortwave trough moving across eastern MT should help to
    sustain convection into the early evening, with at least transient
    supercells possible.=20

    In the short term, isolated large hail and localized severe gusts
    will remain possible with the strongest storms. Cooler temperatures
    and stronger MLCINH are in place east of the Black Hills, but
    low-level moisture also becomes more favorable with eastward extent, along/north of a surface boundary draped from southwest into
    south-central SD. If a larger-scale outflow can develop from ongoing convection, there will be some potential for upscale growth near the intersection of the outflow and surface boundary during the evening.

    ..Dean.. 06/04/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_KQQ2hhhS2WVKhR65ePkYb-KwUS0WatQcrLZ8Z2VkPyqfu_wou5ORWTsUcOA6Gs6rP6_TCENg= rB_8fq6-9jraMuaev8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

    LAT...LON 47500497 46620348 45930255 45350225 44530235 43600260
    43290274 43210296 43310351 43420474 43440598 44110606
    45280624 47140590 47500497=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)