ACUS11 KWNS 042212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042211=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-042345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0981
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Areas affected...portions of northeastern Kansas into far southeast
Nebraska and Northwestern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 042211Z - 042345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing storm coverage and some organization has been
noted with several cluster of thunderstorms over north-central KS in
the last hour. This trend may continue with organization into a
bowing cluster with a locally enhanced risk for damaging gusts and a
couple of tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...As of 22 UTC, regional visible and radar imagery showed
an increase in convective coverage associated with an MCV and
remnant outflow boundary near the KS/NE border. Several stronger
clusters have emerged this afternoon, with the strongest over
Marshall, Clay and Riley Counties in KS. This cluster has shown some organization, despite limited vertical shear, with a bowing
structure and a recent reports of damage and a funnel cloud. If it
can remain near or on the warmer side of the boundary, this segment
may continue to organize as it interacts with the boundary where
local convergence is stronger. This may support a locally enhanced
corridor of damaging wind and brief tornado potential from northeast
KS into northwestern MO this evening.

Additional convective development is ongoing on the southern flank
of this cluster into central KS, which may support further upscale
growth or a supercell or two. While deep-layer shear remains quite
limited, the very moist air mass combined with locally stronger 0-1
SRH may support a brief/weak tornado hail or damaging gusts. An
increase in the low-level jet this evening may allow for some
organization or potential with any more persistent clusters this
evening.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 06/04/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-rc5rzshxT0VaqUGp1T10wT7wjgVZ8Usq61FgxPaTlDbil85hrwFwaTi-BPL6URoNqpV0YbBm= oeW4GMuiFSHzY0oHY4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 38439661 38379702 38719734 39209724 40029696 40429548
40559495 40539451 40379409 39959412 39229468 38659559
38439661=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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