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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0977

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 4 18:27:08 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 041827
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041826=20
    SDZ000-042000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0977
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0126 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

    Areas affected...portions of central/eastern South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 041826Z - 042000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few instances of small to marginally severe hail and
    strong wind gusts may occur with with convection along a surface
    frontal boundary through early-to-mid afternoon. Storm coverage and
    severe potential are the expected to increase later this
    afternoon/evening.

    DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery depicts isolated
    thunderstorms ongoing along a surface frontal boundary ahead of a
    weak surface low analyzed southeast of Pierre, South Dakota. IR
    satellite imagery has depicted brief periods of cooler cloud tops
    indicative of marginally stronger/deeper updraft development. Steep
    mid-level lapse rates (as sampled by the 18z UNR/ABR observed
    soundings) and effective shear of 25-35 kts may support isolated
    small to marginally severe hail and strong wind gusts with this
    activity over the next 1-2 hours. Latest objective analysis also
    indicates MLCIN continues to erode, with deepening cumulus noted on
    visible satellite imagery south of the frontal boundary amid warming
    surface temperatures. This should promote a gradual increase in
    storm coverage and severe threat later this afternoon.

    ..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/04/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-sy-tQSwkNHy28BBtOYqr8DMQzRArqrwoaNDudKEp1sbck8LjARH2CoUEegtlmF7tiTmrXDkl= RvVd5cmMGbVV33csig$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...

    LAT...LON 44519958 44729942 44929901 44929888 45009825 45059758
    44969717 44769696 44539688 44269687 43889703 43739722
    43619777 43589825 43579876 43629924 43829951 44219964
    44519958=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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