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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0499

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 22 22:07:59 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 222207
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222207=20
    OHZ000-INZ000-230000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0499
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0507 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

    Areas affected...portions of eastern Indiana into much of Ohio

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 222207Z - 230000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk for
    gusty winds and marginally severe hail across much of Ohio and
    portions of eastern Indiana over the next couple of hours. Waning
    intensity is then expected into the evening hours.

    DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery depicts scattered
    thunderstorms ongoing across much of northwestern/central Ohio and
    eastern Indiana, with several reports of marginally severe hail
    noted over the past 1-2 hours. Continued diurnal heating is
    supporting 500-1000+ J/kg MLCAPE, which will continue to promote
    strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms across the region. While upper-level forcing remains nebulous, 20-30 kts of effective bulk
    shear (per latest mesoanalysis) and modestly steep mid-level lapse
    rates will continue to support the potential for small to marginally
    severe hail with the strongest cores. Gusty winds also remain
    possible with ongoing storms owing to steep low-level lapse rates of
    8.5-9.0 C/km. Thunderstorm intensity is then anticipated to
    gradually decrease later this evening owing to low-level nocturnal stabilization. Given the limited magnitude of the hail/wind risk,
    watch issuance remains unlikely.

    ..Chalmers/Hart.. 04/22/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9kYPDm_Iy7dxz5cj5JH5JaZX7mNPjlwmtd7ZBJbkeDE5bG89o-t1l1653IWgMFXLOwTmYJI5o= KtAGpBwNewnDtcyV0o$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

    LAT...LON 40258557 40748570 41518463 41518290 41108190 40318117
    39808124 39358179 39238291 39798463 40258557=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)