ACUS11 KWNS 221637
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221637=20
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-221900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0496
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Areas affected...far southern Lower MI...northern IN...and northwest
OH

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 221637Z - 221900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will increase over the next couple
of hours, and storms will persist into early evening. The strongest
storms may produce marginally severe hail near 1 inch diameter and
locally strong gusts. A watch is not currently expected.

DISCUSSION...An isolated thunderstorm over southeast Lake Michigan
has persisted over the past hour as it slowly approaches the MI/IN
coast. During this time, MRMS MESH has estimated hail to near 1
inch. Most recently, 5 and 7 km CAPPI has decreased and echo tops
have lowered. It is unclear if this storm will continue inland. If
so, it could become reinvigorated as it moves into modestly better
low-level moisture near a surface boundary extending west to east
across far southern Lower MI/northern IN and northwest OH.=20

Additional storm development is expected near/south of this surface
boundary over the next couple of hours as strong heating continues.
Steepened low-level lapse rates may support locally strong gusts
with this activity. Additionally, cool temperature aloft are
supporting modest midlevel lapse rates, fostering MUCAPE around 1000
J/kg. Strengthening northwesterly flow aloft may aid in a few better
organized cells capable of producing marginally severe hail through
early evening. Given the overall modest environment, a severe
thunderstorm watch is not currently expected.

..Leitman/Mosier.. 04/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!47MvLqfA7a1ByfzAGQ83nhsTxDondgZJI8bg5-XEcnqjrM3EllHqZpqoBmcGRHfVb1c1v690C= fI6Vlll5NTNtDkTJK8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON 41868712 42048692 42258625 42318524 42308506 42238434
41998372 41738331 41508318 40638316 40268362 40158458
40348532 40858626 41368683 41758706 41868712=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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