ACUS11 KWNS 072356
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072355=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-080200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0173
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0555 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Areas affected...Southern Mississippi into far western Alabama

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 26...

Valid 072355Z - 080200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 26
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts remain possible as poorly organized
storm clusters migrate south/southeast across southern Mississippi
into far western Alabama.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations and radar imagery from KDGX
show a composite cold front/outflow boundary slowly pushing
southeast after a recent amalgamation of frontal and pre-frontal
convection. The recent storm interactions have yielded periodic
strong gusts per velocity imagery, but has also resulted in a recent
weakening trend of lingering convection. However, with the
southeastward surge of the front/outflow, new convection developing
on the boundary will mature in a environment characterized by 1500
J/kg. This may support a gradual uptick in thunderstorm intensity,
and given surface temperatures remaining in the low 80s and upper
70s (yielding low-level lapse rates on the order of 7-7.5 C/km),
sporadic strong to severe downburst winds appear possible over the
next couple of hours. With time, the onset of nocturnal
cooling/stabilization and weak wind shear with southeastward extent
should result in a gradual weakening of convection, but a localized
severe wind threat will likely persist for the next hour or so.

..Moore.. 03/07/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_Xo0D3oSHkKN4KA1QEA_bEs42RqiudFMEIRR5JgR7PkrxwJGvaAHWdmSHt0AWOzzr8x8Ehryx= 6_DcGr0Rs1bi4JTl30$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 31389119 31749032 32248944 32608906 32978849 33058811
32968778 32698767 32388774 31948803 31498868 31228927
31058999 30999052 31029100 31209122 31389119=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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