ACUS11 KWNS 072103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072102=20
TXZ000-072230-
Mesoscale Discussion 0171
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Areas affected...South Central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 072102Z - 072230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase
across portions of south-central Texas this afternoon into the early
evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns,
particularly with an ongoing cell in far southwestern Texas.
DISCUSSION...As a southward-moving, convectively-modified cold front
moves across portions of central and southwestern Texas, severe
storm activity is expected to increase in the short term --
particularly with a supercell tracking eastward from Uvalde. MUCAPE
of 2000-3000 J/kg and effective shear of 35-40 kts will support
continued convective development and organization along the modified
cold front/outflow boundary. The primary threat will be for damaging
winds and large hail, with storms continuing to pose such a threat
even after being undercut by the cold front/outflow boundary. A
severe thunderstorm watch may be needed in the next hour or two.
..Halbert/Guyer.. 03/07/2026
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-QUw7Z03lsUusW259qeV0p5KQ-DtdQzq-60GHETLG1tJ7BR7_RZUdPduNUI1XgynlXBfcGlDK= 7HnXQxtpAYhfw49-bM$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 28120005 28620030 29110043 29600042 29820017 29919986
29919920 29919855 30069765 30049736 29899704 29549685
29089685 28679690 28309708 28039749 27899792 27899840
27919938 28120005=20
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
=3D =3D =3D
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