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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0170

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Mar 7 20:55:46 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 072055
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 072055=20
    PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-072300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0170
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0255 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

    Areas affected...parts of northern West Virginia...western Pennsylvania...southwestern New York

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 25...

    Valid 072055Z - 072300Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 25 continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk for, mainly, marginally severe hail and locally
    damaging wind gusts may persist another couple of hours, but this
    potential appears unlikely to develop eastward across New York
    State, or to the east/southeast of the Allegheny Mountains.

    DISCUSSION...Surface observations have indicated further downward
    mixing of surface dew points with continuing daytime heating ahead
    of convection spreading into the Allegheny Plateau, with surface
    winds remaining westerly to southwesterly across surface troughing
    into the higher terrain. While low-level hodographs may be
    conditionally supportive of tornadic potential near the trough, it
    is not clear that thermodynamic profiles are supportive.=20=20

    Eastward, and particularly to the east/southeast of the crest of the
    Allegheny Mountains, cool to cold and stable boundary-layer air is
    either being maintained or slow to erode. As stronger storms cross
    the higher terrain into and through early evening, they should tend
    to weaken with diminishing risk of producing severe hail and
    damaging surface gusts.

    ..Kerr.. 03/07/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9nl9yjomjCBSBn-3bh0nGe7h28lFD-oBTAW00349D-O59ytQ5ASfCoSlMT_YrSpSPYbaHAQyH= GAYZdVRXhOFmNXur7Q$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

    LAT...LON 42577894 42257844 41197882 40587876 40017903 39557942
    39167980 38748078 38988157 39928074 42577894=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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