ACUS11 KWNS 071757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071757=20
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-072000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0167
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Areas affected...eastern Ohio...northwestern West Virginia...western Pennsylvania...southwestern New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 071757Z - 072000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development may become capable
of producing marginally severe hail, increasing risk for damaging
wind gusts and perhaps accompanied by potential for a couple of
tornadoes by 3-5 PM EST.

DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer layer moisture return across the upper
Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes region is ongoing, but remains
somewhat modest with surface dew points increasing through the
mid/upper 50s. However warming and mixing with continuing
insolation is contributing to steepening low-level lapse rates and thermodynamic profiles with weak to modest CAPE increasing in excess
of 500 J/kg, beneath southwesterly deep-layer mean ambient flow
increasing to near 50 kt.=20=20

Deepening convective development now appears underway along and
discretely ahead of a convectively generated pre-cold frontal
surface boundary now advancing across central into eastern Ohio. As
this continues into the Allegheny Plateau through 21-22Z, developing thunderstorm activity appears likely to intensify and organize.=20
This may include a few evolving supercell structures within and
ahead of an evolving line, accompanied by a risk for severe hail and
damaging wind gusts.=20=20

With surface winds generally veered to a fairly prominent westerly
component, the degree to which low-level hodographs will become
supportive of tornadic potential remains unclear, particularly given
the still sizable boundary-layer temperature/dew point spreads.=20
However, as 850 mb winds strengthen to 50+ kt across eastern Ohio
into western Pennsylvania, various model derived output suggests
that profiles could become locally conducive to a supercell tornado
threat by late afternoon.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 03/07/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5X0j6NIRKa6mDT5O_ffq1JUHT6HvDlNaTe8GQ718nwDDpdb7SZObKBetiHW_TjjezwWmgAMaZ= WRHTbHh_ZzckVAjWAI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON 42537973 42127817 40797932 40018008 38738163 38358266
39088350 40548232 42537973=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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