ACUS11 KWNS 071353
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071352=20
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-071515-

Mesoscale Discussion 0165
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Areas affected...Parts of southeast IN...northern
KY...western/central OH

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 071352Z - 071515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some increase in the severe threat is possible with time
this morning.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized QLCS is currently moving across
eastern IN, downstream of a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving
across the Upper Midwest. Despite strong low-level flow, this QLCS
has generally remained subsevere thus far this morning, due to weak
buoyancy and only modest large-scale ascent. However, relatively
steep midlevel lapse rates were noted on the 12Z ILN sounding, and
some increase in buoyancy is expected with time as continued heating
and moistening occurs within the already warm boundary layer.=20

With relatively gradual improvement of the downstream environment
expected in the short term, potential for locally damaging wind and
perhaps a brief tornado may remain rather isolated through mid
morning, rendering the need for short-term watch issuance uncertain.
A more substantial increase in the severe threat remains possible
from late morning into the afternoon, as ongoing convection moves
into an environment where greater pre-storm heating and
destabilization is expected.

..Dean/Gleason.. 03/07/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7KgkiBurpewuHvTWH4p6zmVs3F9h5-xFzmscc2-iK6Tgir0GcIT65EUT-zRiJTxoEvAv6G6L7= WQ3gCr1k7gpm-tEA6s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON 39668357 38968401 38158470 37948555 38268593 39468508
40828421 41018321 41058242 40728273 40438298 39668357=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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