ACUS11 KWNS 071558
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071557=20
WVZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-071830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0166
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0957 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Areas affected...parts of southern Ohio...much of Kentucky...western
and middle Tennessee...and adjacent northern
Mississippi/northwestern Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 071557Z - 071830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Gradually intensifying and organizing thunderstorm
activity may pose increasing potential to produce strong to severe
wind gusts while spreading eastward through 1-3 PM CST (2-4 PM EST).
One or more severe weather watches may be needed within the next few
hours.

DISCUSSION...A corridor of stronger 2 hourly surface pressure rises
(on the order of 3-5 mb) has been developing northeastward across
the Batesville and Walnut Ridge vicinity of northeastern Arkansas
into areas near/east of Poplar Bluff MO, in the wake of stronger
convection developing northeastward/eastward along a slower moving
congomerate outflow boundary. This appears to be accompanying a low
amplitude perturbation and associated lower/mid-tropospheric jet
streak forecast to overspread much of Kentucky and Tennessee through
18-21Z. The Rapid Refresh suggests this belt of flow may weaken
some, but maintain west-south winds in the 850-700 mb layer at
speeds of 30-50 kt.=20=20

Coupled with boundary-layer destabilization associated ongoing
insolation, and continuing low-level moisture advection (including
surface dew points increasing through the lower/mid 60s F) ahead of
the convection, the environment appears likely to support at least
gradually intensifying and organizing thunderstorm activity. As
this proceeds through early and mid afternoon, potential for
increasingly widespread strong to locally severe wind gusts seems
likely to increase.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 03/07/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6lZubq295uG9ay7eXxznEtqundmaY24WFGCjhd1nqdxmB51FmL2D0nD8yVw5a8SQQxoU37r5N= MBhoI7DXc9dlqxV5b8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...
MEG...

LAT...LON 37708632 39088432 38178232 37208338 34698803 34789016
36968811 37708632=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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