ACUS11 KWNS 070844
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070844=20
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-071045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0162
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Areas affected...Southeast MO into southern IL

Concerning...Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 18...21...

Valid 070844Z - 071045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm
Watches 18, 21 continues.

SUMMARY...Some severe threat may spread eastward through the early
morning.

DISCUSSION...Despite the presence of favorable low-level moisture
(with dewpoints in the low 60s F) and very strong low-level flow
(with 60+ kt at 1-2 km AGL noted in regional VWPs), ongoing
convection remains generally disorganized early this morning across
parts of southern IL/MO. This is likely due to weak lapse
rates/buoyancy and an undercutting outflow that is generally
parallel to the deep-layer flow. However, buoyancy may modestly
improve with time due to continued low-level moisture transport
within the seasonably warm boundary layer. Locally damaging gusts
and/or a brief tornado remain possible if there is any increase in
convective organization early this morning. This conditional threat
may be realized if any part of the ongoing convective line can take
on a more north-south orientation, or if any of the ongoing discrete
convection in advance of the line can intensify before merging into
the QLCS.=20

Given the weak buoyancy and current disorganized state of the
ongoing QLCS, downstream watch issuance is unlikely in the short
term. However, trends will continue to be monitored for any uptick
in storm organization, given the presence of very strong low-level
flow/shear across the region.

..Dean/Gleason.. 03/07/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4q7V2DmbiH0y-MFRfSQmVQ_x5BGqxrpLx1zUVK_ztxa5fT-guWaJwkuMhlMLXy6f0MXO1MkVP= fKMMNwbQl7E-7kEYVs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON 36599295 37859079 38319017 38838972 39908894 39838774
39108762 38738764 38338785 37988807 37498874 36748996
36589060 36609177 36599295=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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