ACUS11 KWNS 070741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070740=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-070945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0161
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Areas affected...Parts of eastern OK/northeast TX into
central/western AR

Concerning...Tornado Watch 20...

Valid 070740Z - 070945Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 20 continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for all severe hazards may develop eastward
overnight. Downstream watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Loosely organized convection is ongoing early this
morning from eastern OK into northwest AR. While some weakening of
low-level flow has been noted in the KSRX VWP, wind profiles remain
quite favorable for organized storms, with moderate deep-layer shear
and effective SRH near/above 250 m2/s2. SPC objective mesoanalysis
and short-term RAP forecasts suggest maintenance or a modest
increase in MLCAPE will be possible overnight, as somewhat richer
low-level moisture continues to be transported into the region from
the southwest. This could still lead to some intensification of
ongoing convection prior to the arrival of an approaching cold
front, with potential for localized severe hail/wind and possibly a tornado.=20=20

Farther south, storms are gradually increasing in coverage and
intensity across northeast TX, within the zone of somewhat
richer/deeper low-level moisture. Given the time of night and
relatively subtle forcing across the region, uncertainty remains
regarding potential for this area of convection to mature, but
supercell development will be possible as this area of convection
spreads northeastward. Any sustained supercells within this
environment could pose a threat for all severe hazards, so new watch
issuance from northeast TX into much of AR is possible if trends
support maturation of these prefrontal storms.

..Dean/Gleason.. 03/07/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7-plkYrbnsJ0BouX5WYGPXD83rrMIfhPlc44iEv9crmLc60_OVi0Rhv1r5sA1qewwvMyp5MJ-= qJaKbF9fmwDpa23jeo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON 32569565 33889554 35519517 36469417 36459311 36429150
36079126 35669142 34769212 33879283 32929365 32339457
32119531 32309553 32569565=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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