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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0160

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Mar 7 06:45:08 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 070645
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 070644=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-070845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0160
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1244 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

    Areas affected...Parts of southwest into north TX...central OK

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 070644Z - 070845Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms will increase in coverage
    overnight. Watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...Storms are gradually increasing in coverage and
    intensity from northwest TX into south-central OK, along a weak cold front/surface trough. A sharper cold front is moving southeastward
    across the region, with convection ongoing from central into
    northeast OK along and immediately behind this front. The stronger
    front will eventually overtake the weaker boundary overnight, with a
    continued increase in storm development along and behind this front.
    Moderate MUCAPE and sufficient deep-layer flow/shear will support
    potential for organized storms, though convective mode may become
    complex due to the eventual undercutting nature of the cold front.

    Initial semi-discrete storms could pose a threat of large hail,
    given the favorable buoyancy and generally steep midlevel lapse
    rates. As loosely organized upscale growth occurs, some increase in
    severe-gust potential will be possible, especially with any bowing
    segments that remain rooted near the surface. A tornado also cannot
    be ruled out with any sustained cells immediately ahead of the
    primary front, given the presence of sufficiently enlarged low-level hodographs. While some uncertainty remains regarding the coverage
    and magnitude of the overnight severe threat, watch issuance is
    possible due to the potential for an increasing coverage of storms
    within a favorable environment.

    ..Dean/Gleason.. 03/07/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8EiVOO1slauJEfUUy7yWpG32snrHWCzDVvyCoQ9ndnYuYNkumNSDDAcvNscFeIQORlUJe6Mfm= aM_YjCjH74K-4OZle8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 32949750 32499792 31709918 30860096 30800214 31300216
    32010154 33499966 34089911 34839821 35519735 35989642
    35789608 35359622 34469656 33619711 32949750=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)