ACUS11 KWNS 070242
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070242=20
KSZ000-070415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0157
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0842 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Kansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 15...18...

Valid 070242Z - 070415Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 15, 18 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat may increase across southern/southeast
Kansas over the next couple of hours as a cold front pushes into a
favorable convective environment.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery from central/eastern KS shows
ongoing convection being undercut by a strong surging cold front,
which has largely limited overall convective intensity so far this
evening. GOES IR imagery depicts new attempts at deep convection to
the northwest of the Wichita, KS area as the front begins to push
into a pocket of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. The KICT VWP also depicts
very strong low-level helicity on the order of 600 m2/s2. The
combination of new convective development within this conditionally
favorable environment suggests that some uptick in severe potential
is possible in the coming hours across south/southeast KS - most
likely manifesting as a severe wind and tornado threat as storms
quickly grow upscale. However, it remains to be seen whether
deeper/stronger convection across this region can remain rooted
along/ahead of the front. If undercutting occurs, the overall severe
threat may remain somewhat limited.=20

Ahead of the front, multiple attempts at sustained deep convection
have been noted to the east/southeast of Wichita, KS, likely the
result of increasing isentropic ascent associated with the onset of
the nocturnal jet (per KICT VWP data). While cell maturation has
been limited owing to the relatively nebulous forcing for ascent,
this convection is developing in an environment supportive of
supercell development (though it remains unclear if one or more
cells will be able to mature prior to the arrival of the front).
While confidence is low, any cell that can develop across this
region may be able to realize the highly favorable environment
(characterized by STP values around 3-5) and pose a threat for
large/very large hail, severe wind, and tornadoes (including the
potential strong tornadoes).

..Moore.. 03/07/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9bgfM776w8nWZqNlDs5gv2akUyzI-io2oa4yNFnqKzCzpctINEuu4VE8DgCR6lJTK-2yNilKU= _7LcCjGafiOAzKW0gY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 37059759 37239794 37669806 37929754 38539675 38799641
38949602 38919565 38709528 38169530 37869539 37499580
37269635 37109694 37059759=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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